In a single day On The Cash — Introduced by Wells Fargo — GOP senator: It is ‘silly’ to purchase Treasury bonds

Have a nice Monday and welcome to On The Money, Your nightly guide to everything related to your bills, bank account, and bottom line. Subscribe here: thehill.com/newsletter-signup.

Today’s big deal: Republicans dig deeper into raising the debt ceiling, regardless of the ramifications. We’ll also look at a difficult path in the house for Biden’s massive expense account and the latest inflation information.

But first find out why Angelina Jolie and I was in the same building today.

For The Hill, I’m Sylvan Lane. Write to me slane@thehill.com or @SylvanLane. You can reach my colleagues in the finance team Naomi Jagoda at njagoda@thehill.com or @NJagoda and Aris Folley afolley@thehill.com or @ArisFolley.

McConnell Says GOP “United Against Raising Debt Ceiling”

Senate Democrats are generally expected to pass laws to raise the country’s debt ceiling with a government funding measure to put maximum pressure on Republicans to support raising the credit limit or risking the blame for a government shutdown.

But Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Said Tuesday that Republicans Vote unanimously thwart any government funding bill that would also raise the country’s debt ceiling.

“Republicans agree against raising the debt ceiling,” McConnell said when asked after a GOP conference whether Republicans would vote for a funding gap that extends the federal government’s ability to borrow, which is expected to be exhausted by October.

McConnell stated that Republicans oppose raising the debt ceiling “not because it doesn’t have to be done,” but because it would pave the way for Democrats to pass a $ 3.5 trillion human infrastructure bill that does much of it previous would undo President TrumpDonald TrumpBiden stumbles for Newsom on the eve of the recall: “The nation’s eyes are on California” On The Money: House Democrats cut Biden’s tax hikes Abortion providers warn of “chaos” if the Supreme Court Roe versus Wade. overrides MORETax cut in 2017.

Fact check:

  • Raising or suspending the debt ceiling alone does not permit or prohibit new spending, nor does it increase or decrease the level of national debt.
  • Raising the debt ceiling will only allow the US to issue new government bonds, which it currently cannot, and generate cash to pay for expenditures already approved by Congress.
  • The US has never defaulted on its debt, and experts say any loss of confidence and creditworthiness in the federal government could cause the financial system to collapse.
  • Countries, financial institutions and investors hold trillions of dollars in government bonds, the value of which could fall if the US fails to remain solvent.

“I want every single Republican senator to answer the question, ‘Are you ready to bankrupt the government?'” Asked the Senate majority leader Charles SchumerChuck SchumerSchumer points to debts incurred under Trump to highlight the need for bipartisan action Warner Says “Under” 0.5 Trillion Housing Aid Package Some say he cannot support Biden’s $ 0.5 trillion spending plan MORE (DN.Y.) on Tuesday.

“Leader McConnell, as I said, is playing dangerous political games by not stepping on the stage as he asked us to and we did when Trump was president,” he added.

Even so, other Republicans, including the moderate Sens. Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyCan Biden make a comeback? What history teaches us (and not) Republican leaders misjudged the January 6 committee New Hampshire Democrat wins GOP seat MORE (Utah) and Rob PortmanRobert (Rob) Jones PortmanTrump administration sales representative supports JD Vance in Ohio Senate race Crypto debate should come back into force GOP hopefuls fight for Trump’s favor in the Ohio Senate race MORE (Ohio), also ruled out a vote on Tuesday for a government funding resolution that also extends the country’s borrowing authority.

And that’s why Senator Rick Scott (R-Fla.) Told reporters today that it did would be “foolish”“To buy government bonds – an asset believed to be almost as safe as cash – amid the stalemate.

“If you buy government bonds today, [you] don’t understand that American taxpayers are unwilling to levy taxes on it, ”said Scott, although surveys have shown solid support for aspects of Biden’s tax plan

“If you are stupid enough to buy this stuff now, you are stupid”

I have more on that Showdown here.

PRESENTED BY WELLS FARGO

DC Diner is being remodeled with help from nonprofit & Wells Fargo

Sandra Foote, owner of Flip-It LJ Diner, didn’t think her restaurant in Columbia Heights could survive COVID-19.

Wells Fargos Open for Business Fund made a grant to the District Bridges charitable organization, which then helped Sandra meet bills.

LEAD THE DAY

The house isn’t an easy walk for Biden, Democrats with a 3.5 ton package

Democrats say getting the $ 3.5 trillion welfare spending plan through the house will be a tough road Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiWashington is increasing security ahead of the September 18 rally How social media is fueling political polarization in the US – what can be done about it The 12:30 report from The Hill – Presented by Facebook – Man with machete, swastika in front of DNC headquarters before the rally on January 6th MORE (D-Calif.) Can only afford three defectors to enforce the measure.

While Senate debate Having received more attention, centrists are also vocally suspicious of the plan in the lower chamber, while progressives are not at all interested in bending.

Some are already pushing privately President BidenJoe BidenBiden stumbles for Newsom on the eve of the recall: “The nation’s eyes are on California” Biden is looking to the climate to sell the economic agenda The family of an American who has been taken hostage by the Taliban is calling on the government to release the peace negotiator for Afghanistan MORE In order to be even more involved in the negotiations on the package with Pelosi, it will be crucial for the signing of the bill to argue that he supports his own agenda. Hanna Trudo from the hill explained here.

A MESSAGE FROM WELLS FARGO

How a DC Florist Remodels with PPP Credit

Le Printemps DC flower shop was able to stay open during the pandemic with two Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans booked through Wells Fargo.

85% of the PPP loans booked through the bank went to companies with fewer than 10 employees.

MAYBE YOU CAN BUY MY CAR?

Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in August and 5.3 percent in the past 12 months, according to data released Tuesday by the Labor Department.

Monthly growth in the consumer price index (CPI), a closely watched indicator of inflation, declined for the second straight month after rising 0.5 percent in July. (Economists expected the CPI to grow 0.4 percent last month.)

Annual CPI growth – one of several ways to measure annual inflation – also declined from 5.4 percent in July, the highest since August 2008.

What happened?

  • Airline tickets, used cars and trucks, and auto insurance prices all fell in August after soaring for much of spring and summer.
  • The used car CPI, which accounted for much of the summer’s inflation spike, fell 1.5 percent in August but is still 31.9 percent above the same point in 2020.

I break everything off here.

AOC’S MET GALA DRESS, BUT IN THE LEGISLATION

The House of Representatives Democrats’ plan would impose the biggest tax hikes on high earners: analysis

The House Democrats’ tax proposals would impose the largest tax hikes on households with an income of $ 1 million or more, according to an analysis by the Joint Tax Committee (JCT) released Monday.

The analysis takes into account the Democrats’ proposals to increase taxes for high-income individuals and businesses and to extend the expansion of tax credits for low- and middle-income households.

  • In 2023, households with incomes greater than $ 1 million would see federal taxes increase by 10.6 percent and their average tax rate from 30.2 percent under current law to 37.3 percent.
  • Households with incomes less than $ 200,000 would lower their taxes, the JCT said.

Much of the child tax credit expansion proposed by the Democrats would expire after 2025 – at the same time, the individual tax provisions in the Republican Tax Act of 2017 would expire. Naomi has the details here.

Good to know

Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission Gary GenslerGary GenslerOn The Money – The Democratic Tax Divide According to Coinbase, the SEC is investigating its crypto loan product Climate hawks are pushing Biden to replace the Fed chairmanship MORE said Tuesday that the rapid proliferation of cryptocurrencies and related investment products is similar the wild West.”

We still have an eye on:

  • There was a record-breaking number of players on the opening weekend of the 2021 NFL season Place bets online As more and more states legalize sports betting.
  • Job searches are expected to increase in the fall as more schools Resumption of personal learning Amid the ongoing pandemic, Indeed’s Hiring Lab forecast in its latest survey.

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Finance side for the latest news and coverage. We will see you tomorrow.

Treasury Yields Face Curbs From Fistful of Cash-Market {Dollars}

(Bloomberg) – The flood of dollars helping to bring some US money market rates below zero could fuel the international appetite for longer-term government bonds and help contain rising bond yields at the longer end of the curve.

The abundance of greenbacks in the financial markets, fueled by a combination of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the prospect of government spending equal to the $ 1.9 trillion stimulus package, did not help reduce the cost of any US dollar-based investors by reducing currency hedging on their holdings of government bonds. This, combined with now higher nominal returns in America, means that it seems more attractive for these investors to get in and buy.

“The secured return has not been so attractive in euros and yen for years,” said Chris Iggo, chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers.

For managers of euro and yen portfolios who buy assets denominated in US dollars and hedge the currency risk on a three-month basis, the shift in the so-called cross-currency basis swaps since last year, together with the direct increase in nominal returns, means the The yield on 10-year US benchmark debt is now at its highest level since 2017 and well above what it can achieve in its home markets. This could lead to foreigners jumping in to buy after last week’s sell-off on bonds that are generating 10-year returns above 1.6%. However, whether this can stop the drive for ever higher government bond yields remains to be seen.

“The recent surge in US yields and the development of the currency base have made US Treasuries more attractive to international investors,” said Mohit Kumar, strategist at Jefferies International.

Euro-based investors who buy 10-year government bonds can collect 113 basis points versus 10-year German government bonds. Meanwhile, yen-based investors, who typically measure the 10-year government bond versus 30-year Japanese government bonds, will receive a 47 basis point increase in yield on that trade, according to Kumar, a former trader.

The story goes on

The three-month cross-currency base swaps for the yen and euro have fallen from their highs this year, but are still well below their December lows. The Fed’s efforts to increase the dollar’s liquidity and the US Treasury Department’s cuts have resulted in an abundance of dollars in the money market system. The dollar glut keeps overnight rates close to zero, and from time to time slightly negative interest rates appear on loans backed by Treasury bills.

The three-month cross-currency yen base swap stood at minus 11.25 basis points on Tuesday. A Japanese investor looking to hedge their Treasury exposure would borrow in yen, pay the three-month Japanese Libor (currently minus 0.087%), and convert the yen to US dollars to buy US Treasuries. The Treasuries can be sold via reverse repo and the proceeds can be converted back into yen via the cross-currency base swap.

It is speculated that Japanese investors will become more involved in trading after the fiscal year begins in April.

Curve softening

US yields rose sharply last week, with the 10- and 30-year tenors hitting their highest levels in more than a year, pricing in an economic recovery as the US virus infection rate eased with the introduction of the vaccine. The 10-year return rose to 1.609% while the 30-year return hit 2.394%. The market has since stabilized and the 10-year situation eased back to around 1.42% on Tuesday.

“I would be surprised if 10-year yields were to rise above 1.5%, let alone over 2%,” said Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Yen and euro-based investors flow into government bonds “, Provided that interest rate volatility subsides.

“It is not possible here to sustainably decouple the steepness of the curve in the USA from other regions,” said Panigirtzoglou. “If the US curve continues to steepen, investors outside of the US will ultimately take advantage of the return advantage.”

Core returns in the eurozone and Japan have failed to break out of the lows seen in recent years. Japan’s 10-year return is still below 0.20% while the German 0.35% is negative.

“As the Bank of Japan remains committed to controlling the yield curves and the European economic outlook does not warrant higher returns, foreign investors are very likely to take advantage of this opportunity,” said AXA’s Iggo.

(Updated levels in the eighth paragraph)

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

Subscribe now to stay ahead of the curve with the most trusted business news source.

© 2021 Bloomberg LP