UK lifts all remaining Covid restrictions regardless of instances surging

Two people embrace in the middle of the dance floor at Egg London nightclub in the early hours of July 19, 2021 in London, England. Starting Monday July 19 at 12:01 p.m., England will lift most of its remaining social restrictions from Covid-19, including wearing masks indoors and restrictions on group gatherings.

Rob Pinney | Getty Images News | Getty Images

England is taking a step into the unknown on Monday, lifting almost all remaining restrictions on public life at a time when coronavirus infections are high and high.

As of Monday, there will no longer be any restrictions on indoor gatherings. Nightclubs can reopen, the 1-meter social distancing rule will be lifted, and face masks will be largely voluntary, although some airlines and transport companies have announced that they will retain mask requirements.

In essence, most of the legal restrictions have now been lifted and replaced with an emphasis on ownership as infections continue to rise.

There was no mention of “Freedom Day,” as the Monday, July 19, earlier, when Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged caution as the country moved to “Step 4” of its roadmap to lift restrictions.

“Please, please, please be careful. Take the next step tomorrow with the right care and respect for other people and the risks that the disease continues to pose,” Johnson said in a statement released on Sunday evening Downing Street was released.

The lifting of restrictions had already been postponed from June 21st to allow more vaccinations amid a surge in cases caused by the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant.

The number of cases remains high across the UK with 316,691 reported cases in the past seven days, an increase of around 43% over the previous seven day period. Hospital stays are low but insidiously higher, with 4,313 people hospitalized in the last seven days. Show government data. 283 people have died in the past seven days.

The vast majority of infections currently affect younger age groups who are not yet or only partially vaccinated. Recent events such as the 2020 European Football Championship, which saw England fans gathering in pubs and bars across the country, have also been blamed for the rise in cases.

At the same time, the government is pushing ahead with vaccinations. To date, 87.9% of UK adults have received a first dose of a vaccine and 68.3% of UK adults have received both doses. Taking both doses of a vaccine greatly reduces the risk of infection and hospitalization from the coronavirus.

Continue reading: A headache? Runny nose? According to the study, these are among the new top 5 Covid symptoms

However, experts warn that hospital admissions could increase significantly in the coming weeks, and scientists have criticized plans to relax almost all Covid-19 restrictions. calls it unethical and dangerous for the whole planet. Others have defended the move, saying that staying incarcerated has many harmful consequences, from the economic and livelihood effects to mental health.

In a statement on Sunday evening, the UK government admitted that cases continued to rise, but noted that the link to hospital admissions and deaths from the vaccination program had been “significantly weakened” as all adults were asked to come forward for both doses of the vaccine.

Watch the world

Analysts say the world will be watching Britain with interest to see what happens.

Deutsche Bank research strategist Jim Reid stated Monday that “the world will be watching the British experiment with great interest. It could show a way back to normal or warn even heavily vaccinated countries that Covid will be a problem for a decent time. “

Before that symbolic day, new cases in the UK fell below 50,000 after two days yesterday (Sunday). However, the weekly growth rate is still strong. When you break down the numbers, the largest area of ​​growth over this period was men ages 15 to 40. It is the first time in the pandemic that there has been any notable gender segregation. It strongly suggests the impact of the millions of soccer fans watching the European Championship soccer final in various locations across the country. “

Continue reading: Wearing masks is becoming a new battlefield in England as Covid rules are relaxed

Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC on Monday that the economic impact of the reopening was uncertain as consumer behavior could be affected by the reopening, with some consumers more nervous about the lifting of restrictions like wearing masks .

“I doubt we will see any recovery, but I think we will see continued growth in economic activity … but some of those uncertainties are certainly great. We need to look at some of the high-frequency data, ”mobility statistics, and the like, to see what the real impact of the uncertainty of opening and removing masks is actually keeping people away from the high street and into restaurants and supermarkets go, “he told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.

Government defends reopening

Johnson, who is self-isolating after coming into contact with Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who is ill with Covid, defended the reopening on Monday.

“If we don’t do it now, we have to wonder when are we ever going to do it? This is the right moment,” Johnson said in a video statement.

“But we have to do it carefully. We have to remember that unfortunately this virus is still out there. The cases are increasing, we can see the extreme contagiousness of the Delta variant.”

Johnson said there was “immense comfort and satisfaction” that Covid vaccines “have severely weakened the link between infection and hospitalization, and between infection and serious illness and death.”

Continue reading: The Covid Delta variant “exploded” in Great Britain – and could be a blueprint for the USA

The government said it would continue to review all data. It said it will “strengthen vaccine defense” by shortening the dosing interval of Covid vaccines for all adults from 12 to 8 weeks, continuing to use its testing, tracking and isolation system, and maintaining border controls, including quarantine for all travel from a country on the red list and for countries on the yellow list, unless persons are double vaccinated.

“The data is continuously evaluated and contingency measures are maintained during times of higher risk if necessary, but restrictions are avoided where possible,” the government said.

Economists eye surging cash provide as inflation fears mount

By Karen Brettell

(Reuters) – Some economists are warning that the rising money supply could exacerbate a surge in US inflation, which has been accelerating as fast as it has been for more than a decade.

According to the Center for Financial Stability’s (including Treasuries) Divisia M4 index, money supply – which measures the circulation of currencies and cash – rose 12% year over year in April.

The measure has run between 22% and 31% every month since April 2020, fueled by unprecedented economic stimulus from the US Federal Reserve and the US government. This contrasts with an annual growth of around 3-7%, which was common from 2015 to the beginning of 2020.

“This money supply growth is just so much faster than anything we’ve seen before,” said Desmond Lachman, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “It’s a reflection of a huge backlog in the economy … it’s hard for me to understand how not to get inflation.”

Money supply

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the Fed would adjust its policy if inflation expectations get too high, and the central bank is postponing its first forecast rate hike from 2024 to 2023.

So far, money supply growth has not been a major driver of inflationary pressures, in large part because banks hold cash as deposits.

The Fed has also downplayed the link between money supply and inflation, and Powell said in February that monetary measures had not been a major determinant of inflation “for a long time”.

In fact, the central bank’s bond purchases after the financial crisis did not trigger the expected inflation, as it took the economy years to recover and the money supply at that point was falling.

This time around, however, banks are struggling with record deposits after the US government increased government spending while the Federal Reserve purchases unprecedented amounts of bonds.

The story goes on

There is concern that businesses, investors and consumers are drawing up their deposits and spending, while banks increase lending as the economy reopens. Some economists fear that such a confluence of factors could lead to demand growing faster than economic output and prices rising.

Money supply growth was a factor in the high inflation in the 1970s, when the government ran budget deficits and the Fed introduced loose monetary policy to stimulate employment.

Bank reserves rose to a record $ 3.89 trillion in April and are projected to surpass $ 5 trillion this year as banks sell bonds to the central bank.

Meanwhile, commercial and industrial lending by commercial banks fell from a record $ 3.04 trillion in March 2020 to $ 2.55 trillion in May, although it continues to rise above the February 2.36 trillion level 2020 lie.

The Fed may be reluctant to hike rates as the Treasury Department struggles with record debt levels even if inflation rises, said William A. Barnett, director of the Center for Financial Stability.

However, if rates on primary market lending rise without interest rates on reserves rising accordingly, it could lead to an “explosion in lending,” Barnett said. “The risk to the economy is future inflation.”

Barnett believes that much of the Fed’s bond purchases will be permanent, effectively monetizing the debt, as it did during World War II, when most of the Fed’s bond purchases were irreversible.

The Fed has announced that it will eventually expire its bond purchases when the economy recovers, after which it will have to decide whether to decrease the overall size of its asset holdings when the bonds in its holdings mature.

When it “normalized” its policy from 2014 onwards, the Fed first reinvested maturing securities to keep its overall balance sheet constant, but then allowed the balance sheet to shrink.

This time around, the Fed is far from developing a plan to actually reduce its holdings.

However, some fear that if inflation is already rising, it may be too late to act.

Last week’s data showed that consumer prices rose 5% in May, the largest annual increase in 13 years.

“The rise in inflation could be a bit higher than the Fed has gambled away once inflation expectations are embedded in the system,” said Kim Rupert, managing director of Action Economics.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Dan Grebler)

Analyst Forecasts For Accel Leisure, Inc. (NYSE:ACEL) Are Surging Greater

Celebrations may be appropriate for Accel Entertainment, Inc. ((NYSE: THAT) Shareholders, with analysts vastly improving their legal estimates for the company. Consensus estimates suggest that investors can expect sharp increases in statutory sales and earnings per share, with analysts modeling a real improvement in business performance. Investors were pretty bullish on Accel Entertainment, too, with its stock rising 11% to $ 13.46 over the past week. It will be interesting to see if today’s upgrade is enough to propel the stock any higher.

After the upgrade, the six analysts at Accel Entertainment are now forecasting sales of $ 684 million in 2021. If that were achieved, it would mean a significant increase in sales of 92% compared to the previous 12 months. The losses are expected to go away in the next year, with earnings projected at $ 0.37 per share this year. Prior to this last update, analysts had forecast sales of $ 612 million and earnings per share (EPS) of $ 0.26 for 2021. So we can see that analyst sentiment has risen significantly lately in both sales and earnings per share according to the latest estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Accel Entertainment

NYSE: ACEL earnings and revenue growth May 15, 2021

It won’t be surprising to learn that as a result of these upgrades, analysts increased their target price for Accel Entertainment by 8.7% to $ 15.58. However, setting a single price target can be unwise because the consensus target is effectively the average of the analyst price targets. As a result, some investors enjoy looking at the various estimates to see if there are different opinions about company valuation. There are a few different perceptions at Accel Entertainment, with the most bullish analyst rating it at $ 20.00 and the most bearish at $ 13.00 per share. Analysts definitely have different views on the business, but we don’t think the spread of estimates is wide enough to suggest extreme results could be awaiting Accel Entertainment shareholders.

One way to get more context about these predictions is to examine how they compare to past performance and how other companies in the same industry are doing. For example, we’ve determined that Accel Entertainment’s rate of growth is expected to accelerate significantly. Annual sales growth of 138% is forecast by the end of 2021. This is well above the historic decline of 18% per year last year. In contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecasting revenue growth of 22% per year. Not only are Accel Entertainment revenues expected to improve, but analysts expect faster growth than the industry as a whole.

The bottom line

Most importantly, with this upgrade, analysts have revised their earnings per share estimates for this year in anticipation of an improvement in business conditions. They have also updated their sales estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the broader market. Given that the consensus seems almost broadly bullish with a significant increase in forecasts and a higher price target, Accel Entertainment may be worth investigating further.

Analysts are definitely bullish at Accel Entertainment, but no company is perfect. In fact, you should know that there are a few potential concerns to be aware of, including last year’s dilutive stock issue. For more information, you can click through to our platform Learn more about this and the other two flags we identified .

Another way to look for interesting companies that might be Reaching a turning point is to track whether the management buys or sells with ours free List of growing companies that insider buy.

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JPMorgan is constructive on Indonesia regardless of surging Covid circumstances within the nation

SINGAPORE – JPMorgan sees the outlook for Indonesia as positive, although the country is still grappling with rising Covid infections. The number of cases has recently exceeded a million.

The country’s young population is part of the reason for this optimism, said James Sullivan, head of ex-Japan Asian equity research at the investment bank.

“Demographically, Southeast Asia is very different from some of the developed countries we compare these countries with,” Sullivan told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Wednesday.

In 2015, the median age of the Indonesian population was 28.5 years, according to Statista.

“Because they’re so much younger, they tend to tackle the mortality side of this conversation significantly better than some of the older, developed economies,” he said. “That’s a very important distinction when we think about it.”

As a result, lockdowns “may not be as necessary” in such countries – compared to places with significantly older populations that are at higher risk from Covid-19, the analyst said.

India as an example

To make his point clear, Sullivan used the example of India, a country that, according to Johns Hopkins University, ranks second in the world after the United States in terms of the number of Covid infections.

“There was long talk of infection rates in India until around August last year,” he said, adding that there were “very dire predictions” about the impact of the pandemic on the Indian economy.

These fears regarding India do not appear to have materialized as the daily number of Covid cases in the country has decreased significantly since then. Analysts have also said the economic recovery has been stronger than expected.

Still, according to Hopkins, Indonesia has had the highest number of Covid-19 cases in Southeast Asia.

As of Wednesday, Indonesia recorded more than 1.11 million coronavirus infections while at least 30,770 people have died from Covid-19. Information from the country’s Ministry of Health shown.

Other factors

In addition to Indonesia’s relatively young population, JPMorgan also sees “positive efforts” to stimulate growth across Indonesia’s economy, Sullivan said.

The government is pushing for a mutual fund called the Indonesia Investment Authority. Reports suggest that Indonesian President Joko Widodo wishes this Raise up to $ 100 billion in funding.

Sullivan added that there has been a “significant recovery” in manufacturing, particularly in the export sector. In addition, the JPMorgan analyst cited the government’s vaccine efforts as another reason for its positive outlook.

Indonesia started a Covid-19 vaccination program in January Described by Reuters as one of the world’s largest campaigns. Of the country Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati recently told CNBC It will take at least a year for Indonesia to achieve “herd immunity” – which it does when large sections of the population become immune to the disease.

– CNBC’s Yen Nee Lee contributed to this report.