Retail business presses forward with convention, tries to nudge normalcy

Visitors enter the venue for the NRF 2020 Vision: Retail’s Big Show held in New York, USA on January 12, 2020.

Wang Ying | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

“The big show will go on,” Matt Shay, president of the National Retail Federation, said Monday.

And on Friday, even as more speakers and attendees leave the conference, that remains the trade group’s plan.

The National Retail Federation will open its annual meeting in New York City this weekend. It is one of many annual conferences and fairs that ring in a new year in January each year. But with omicron Pushing Covid cases to new heights, conference planning has become complex and caused the industry to make tough decisions.

The JP Morgan Healthcare Conference – which attracts medical professionals, big pharma and healthcare startups – decided to hold its annual event virtually this week. CES 2022, a trade show organized by the Consumer Technology Association, continued with his event the previous week, albeit with smaller crowds. And the film industry said it is moving forward with plans to host the Berlin International Film Festival in person in February, while the Sundance Film Festival scheduled for later this month will be held virtually.

The decisions are symbolic in some cases, reflecting the challenges businesses face as companies try to push consumers toward more normalcy. Grocery stores and drugstores have kept their doors open and stores staffed during previous waves of the pandemic. Cinemas are trying win back audience, as some people have become shy about sitting next to strangers.

“As we move beyond the pandemic endemic, this year’s convention is a step forward in this new environment,” NRF said in a statement Friday. “It’s going to be a bit messy, no doubt, but it’s a step forward.”

There will be fewer opportunities for people to take their masks off, drink and socialize like there have been at conferences in the past. NRF recently decided to postpone two of its most important events — an awards gala and a more intimate dinner hosted by the NRF Foundation — to mid-April. The foundation sent personal communications to CEOs and honorees on Jan. 6 announcing the change. It has also indefinitely postponed a student program to coincide with the Big Show, which typically draws about 800 college-age attendees for education and networking.

NRF has announced increased security measures. In addition to requiring masks and vaccination certificates, there are plans to distribute N95 masks and Covid test kits to take home.

Similarly, the Berlin Film Festival said its event would have tighter restrictions and no parties.

Declining visitor numbers

The U.S. has been reporting an average of nearly 800,000 cases a day for the past week, more than triple the previous record set last winter, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. While cases of Omicron may be milder than previous strains of the virus, hospitalizations are also increasing, particularly in the last two weeks.

With this in mind, expected attendance at NRF’s Big Show has declined. Shay from NRF said Monday in a post on LinkedIn that the show will go on. He said the conference is expected to attract up to 20,000 attendees and 750 exhibitors. Around 40,000 people attended the Big Show in 2019.

Two days later, however, an NRF spokesman said there had been 15,000 confirmed participants.

Almost every day brought changes to the conference schedule. Jessica Albas Honest company confirmed last Friday that the company’s founder and CEO has stepped down from the lineup. Saks chief executive Marc Metrick resigned earlier this week. Both were keynote speakers at the event on the main stage.

aim said Friday that CEO Brian Cornell still plans to attend the event. He is scheduled to give a keynote and accept the trade group’s “Visionary” award. However, the company said it has cut travel for other employees planning to leave and is looking at opportunities to attend virtually.

A session with tapestry, Coach and Kate Spade’s parent company, is no longer on the three-day agenda. Meanwhile CEOs out Old Navy, stitch fix, lowes and north current have decided not to travel to the conference and will instead hold their sessions virtually.

executives out Macy’s, WW International (formerly Weight Watchers International), Victoria’s Secret, Authentic Brands Group and Coresight Research are expected to be present in person.

To date, NRF has not offered a virtual option for attendees or speakers who are not scheduled to be on the main stage at the Javits Center.

We believe that now is an appropriate time to get back together in some way. This is a time to start normalizing.

Stephanie Martz

General Counsel, National Retail Federation

In a Jan. 6 tweet, Future Commerce co-founder Phillip Jackson said, “NRF’s The Big Show is going to be more like The No Show.”

Because omicron is highly contagious, there are fears that an event that draws thousands of attendees could turn into a super-spreader event. Nearly 70 attendees, including some Samsung executives, tested positive for coronavirus after CES took place in Las Vegas last week. according to a Reuters report. It is not clear whether these attendees contracted Covid during the tech show or at external events such as a dinner at a restaurant.

The location of NRF’s big show, the Javits Center, is already believed to be the source of the first known case of omicron spread in the US, after clusters of cases were discovered among the roughly 53,000 people who gathered there for an anime conference in November.

‘Open for business’

The NRF is driving the conference forward as many retail workers earning minimum wage — or close to it — work in stores and warehouses every day. On the other hand, many of the industry’s top executives and corporate employees have been able to work from the comfort and security of their homes.

“The fact is, it’s really, really important for us to remember that our frontline retail associates have been working all the time and we’ve asked them to come into work and engage with customers,” said Stephanie Martz, the Chief Administrative Officer and General Counsel of NRF, in an interview on January 5.

She said vaccines, masks and other safety precautions have changed the game, both for the conference and for business operations in general.

“Individual companies are making the decisions that they are going to make themselves and we certainly don’t blame them if people are pulling out, but we think as a trade association representing retailers we should take advantage of the fact we are able to say that we believe the economy can and should be open for business,” she said.

“We believe now is an appropriate time to get back together in some way,” Martz added. “This is a time to start normalizing.”

NRF’s Shay stressed the importance of keeping businesses running despite the pandemic.

“We are encouraged by Mayor Eric Adams’ stated desire to keep New York City open,” Shay said in his LinkedIn post. “The overwhelming opinion of our members, exhibitors, retailers, partners and visitors is that we should move forward with the show. … This year’s show is a step forward and we believe it is necessary and worthwhile.”

Way forward for Ralph Lauren, and retail, could also be coloring garments in retailer

Ralph Lauren Poloshirts sind in einem Schaufenster in New York ausgestellt.

Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Wenn die Farben, die Bekleidungshändler für ihre neuesten Kollektionen auswählen, Ihnen oft nicht gefallen oder wenn sie in den Ladenregalen hinter den neuesten Trends auf den Bürgersteigen oder in den sozialen Medien erscheinen, kommt möglicherweise früher eine Lösung, als Sie es sich vorgestellt haben .

Im nächsten Jahr, Ralph Lauren Flagship-Stores verfügen möglicherweise über die Textilfärbetechnologie, mit der Käufer das leere Baumwoll-Poloshirt im Geschäft färben können.

Chemieriese Dow, ein führender Anbieter von Textilfärbemitteln, arbeitet mit Ralph Lauren an neuen Verfahren zum Färben von Baumwolle, die den Einsatz von Chemikalien, Wasser und Energie reduzieren.

“Ralph Lauren ist offensichtlich ein großer Verbraucher von Baumwolle und zum Färben von Textilien, es braucht viel Chemikalien und viel Wasser und man erzeugt viel Abfall und das macht man hauptsächlich, weil man versucht, Hitze und Druck zu verwenden, um zu setzen diese Farbe in den Stoff”, sagte Dow-CEO Jim Fitterling letzten Donnerstag im CNBC ESG-Auswirkungen Gipfel.

Billionen Liter Wasser, werden beispielsweise zum Färben von Stoffen verwendet, was 20 % des weltweiten Abwassers entspricht.

Dies ist einer der Gründe, warum Dow das Anfang des Jahres angekündigte ECOFAST Pure entwickelt hat, das zum Färben von Baumwolle bis zu 90 % weniger Chemikalien, 50 % weniger Energie und 50 % weniger Wasser benötigt.

Aber das Nachhaltigkeitsprojekt könnte auch große Auswirkungen auf den sogenannten Erlebnishandel haben – die Bemühungen der Einzelhändler, den Verbrauchern neue Gründe zu geben, in Geschäfte zu kommen, da der bereits große Fußabdruck des E-Commerce nur als Folge der Pandemie wächst.

Ralph Laurens Farbe auf Anfrage Projekt verwendet die Dow-Technologie, um Baumwolle zu jedem Zeitpunkt in der Herstellung zu färben, und führt zu kürzeren Vorlaufzeiten für Farbentscheidungen. Halide Alagöz, Chief Product and Sustainability Officer bei Ralph Lauren, sagte in einer Ankündigung über die Bemühungen Anfang des Jahres, dass der Einzelhändler in der Lage sein wird, “personalisierte Verbraucheranforderungen schneller als je zuvor zu erfüllen”.

Und obwohl er es nicht gesagt hat, bedeutet das, dass er möglicherweise ein Hemd im Laden färbt.

“Ralph Lauren wird nächstes Jahr in der Lage sein, Color on Demand in einem ihrer Flagship-Stores in New York zu platzieren, damit Sie Ihr Ralph Lauren-Polo im Laden färben lassen können”, sagte Fitterling beim CNBC ESG Impact Veranstaltung. “Ohne diese Technologie wäre das nie möglich gewesen.”

Eine Sprecherin von Ralph Lauren sagte: “Wir freuen uns darauf, zu gegebener Zeit mehr darüber zu teilen.”

Die Ära nach der Pandemie des Erlebnishandels

Für Ralph Lauren ist es nicht neu, neue Strategien zu entwickeln, um den Verbraucher stärker in die Erfahrung der Bekleidungsproduktion einzubeziehen. Es hat Käufern ermöglicht, die Farben für das ikonische Pferdelogo, das in Hemden für online bestellte Kleidung eingenäht ist, anzupassen. Andere Einzelhändler wie North Face lassen die Verbraucher die Komponenten der Jacken auswählen und ihre Vorlieben in das Ganze integrieren.

Individualisierung und schnellere Mode, die den einzelnen Verbraucher in das Einkaufsnarrativ einbettet, werden sich im Einzelhandel auf vielfältige Weise auswirken. Chip Bergh, CEO von Levi Strauss & Co., hat dies gesagt traditionelle Größen gehören in der Mode der Vergangenheit an 3D-Körperscanner und Kameratechnologie in Kombination mit einer viel schnelleren Fertigung ermöglichen es Einzelhändlern, Kleidung für jede Person individuell zu gestalten. Nike und Amazon haben in den letzten Jahren beide Körperscan-Technologien übernommen.

Vor der Pandemie drehte sich jedes Gespräch im Einzelhandel um den Verkauf von Erfahrungen über Dinge, und während die Sperren möglicherweise vieles, was in Arbeit war, pausiert haben, da die Digitalisierung die einzige Möglichkeit zur Geschäftsabwicklung wurde, werden diese Strategien jetzt wieder in den Fokus rücken.

“E-Commerce hat an Durchdringungspunkten und Mindshare gewonnen und wird es nicht zurückgeben”, sagte Simeon Siegel, Retail Analyst bei BMO-Kapitalmärkte. “Aber starke Geschäfte, die es durch die Pandemie geschafft haben, sind noch stärker und werden wahrscheinlich nicht verschwinden.”

Das bedeutet eine zunehmende Mischung aus E-Commerce und Erlebnisshops, insbesondere für hochkarätige Standorte. „Der Laden wird jeden Tag erlebbarer“, sagt Siegel. “Der Trick besteht darin, daraus Kapital zu schlagen, um mehr Dinge zu verkaufen.”

Dem Verbraucher die Möglichkeit zu geben, eine Farbe zu wählen und ein Kleidungsstück in einem Geschäft färben zu lassen, könnte dazu beitragen, eine emotionale Bindung zu schaffen, die mit einem Kauf verbunden ist, der für die Zukunft des Einzelhandels entscheidend ist.

Den Verbraucher zum „Schöpfer“ zu machen, so Siegel, „war schon immer eine starke Sache.

“Die Leute wollen nach der Pandemie wieder raus”, sagte Ivan Feinseth, Chief Investment Officer und Director of Research bei Tigress Financial Partners. „Viele Ideen wurden wegen der Pandemie auf Eis gelegt, werden aber wiederkommen. Ein Großteil des Einzelhandels findet immer noch in einem Geschäft statt“, sagte er.

Die Personalisierung und schnelle Produktion von Kleidung, die es dem Verbraucher ermöglicht, die Farbe zu wählen, ist eine interessante Entwicklung, da der Prozess der Stoffaufbereitung in der Vergangenheit giftig war und nur von Arbeitern durchgeführt werden konnte, die in Fabriken Schutzkleidung trugen.

„Die Chemikalien zum Färben von Stoffen, die gesamte Handhabung, wie Unternehmen Stoffe loswerden … man nimmt nicht überschüssige Farbe und wirft sie in ein Waschbecken“, sagte er, fügte jedoch hinzu, dass die Entfernung von Chemikalien aus vielen Produkten, wie z als Reinigungsmittel, wird immer häufiger verwendet.

Dow lehnte es ab, auf die Kommentare seines CEOs einzugehen.

Ralph Lauren sagte in seiner offiziellen Ankündigung, dass das Ziel das weltweit erste “skalierbare Null-Abwasser-Baumwollfärbesystem” ist, und die erste Phase, die mit traditionellen Färbegeräten verwendet wird, wird bis zu 85 % weniger Chemikalien verbrauchen. Bis 2025 soll die Color on Demand-Plattform in mehr als 80 % der festen Baumwollprodukte eingesetzt werden.

Die Unternehmen gaben Anfang dieses Monats außerdem bekannt, dass sie den Färbeprozess für die Textilindustrie Open-Sourcing anbieten.

Durchbrüche in der Farbtechnologie

Mehrere Durchbrüche in der Stofffärbung sind im Gange. Der digitale Textildruck verändert bereits die Art und Weise, wie Verbraucher Farben und Muster kontrollieren.

„Der Himmel ist die Grenze dessen, was Verbraucher bestellen und erhalten können“, sagte Ken Butts, Global Key Account Manager bei Datacolor, das mit Einzelhändlern an der Implementierung digitaler Farblösungen für ihre Lieferketten arbeitet. Dies war hauptsächlich auf Online-Unternehmen beschränkt, die dies für Heimwerker tun, und für Muster anstelle von Volltonfarben auf Stoffen wie Polstern oder Vorhängen, obwohl es auch in die Bekleidungsbranche übergeht. „Wir sehen, dass Unternehmen in ihre eigenen Digitaldrucker oder Druckmuster investieren, und der nächste Schritt ist das Drucken direkt für die Verbraucher“, sagte er.

Der Digitaldruck ist in der Lage, schnell auf das Interesse und die Nachfrage der Verbraucher zu reagieren, wird aber das traditionelle Färben in absehbarer Zeit nicht ersetzen, da es unter anderem viele Stoffe gibt, die er noch nicht verarbeiten kann.

„Das heißt nicht, dass das nicht eines Tages überwunden wird“, sagt Butts, „aber Ihr typisches Poloshirt, es wird zuerst so hergestellt, dass es wie ein Hemd aussieht und dann in Form eines Hemdes gefärbt es, du kannst es da drin nicht herumdrehen [the printer].”

Der traditionelle Ansatz, ein Kleidungsstück wie ein Poloshirt zu färben, erfordert einen intensiven Prozess mit Hunderten von Gallonen Pigment und einer erheblichen Menge an Großmaschinen, die für eine Ladeneinrichtung niemals realisierbar wären, aber selbst in industriellen Textilbetrieben gibt es sind kleinere Maschinen zum Testen von Farbmustern.

“Überall auf der Welt findet man eine Fabrik, die Stoffe auf Großanlagen färbt, Tausende von Pfund auf einmal, sie werden ein ähnliches Stück im Labor in kleinem Maßstab haben, und dort testet der Hersteller seine Fähigkeit, ein spezifisches Produkt herzustellen Farbe”, sagte Butts. “Der erste Schritt für einen Lieferanten, wenn ein Einzelhändler nach einer neuen Farbe fragt, besteht darin, diese an kleineren Geräten zu testen.”

Die kleineren Geräte benötigen immer noch Chemikalien und Wasser, und am Ende des Prozesses werden Probleme mit der Abfallentsorgung auftreten, aber mit der Verbesserung der Technologie ist es nicht unvernünftig, eine Zukunft vorauszusehen, in der Einzelhändler Stoffe in Geschäften färben können, insbesondere in größeren Flagship-Stores, in denen Platz ist nicht eingeschränkt.

Kunden können in ein Geschäft kommen und eine Farbe aus einer Palette auswählen oder sogar eine Farbe mitbringen, und eine Software kann diese in die erforderlichen Farbstoffe umwandeln. Aber das Timing wird ein Problem für eine Revolution in der Farbfärberei in den Geschäften sein. Das chemische Färben kann selbst in seiner effizientesten Form bis zu einer Stunde dauern, um das endgültige Kleidungsstück herzustellen. Aber sowohl für Verbraucher als auch für Einzelhändler könnte dies immer noch besser sein als das derzeitige Verfahren.

“Jetzt wählen Designer eine Palette, die in sechs bis neun Monaten, im Sommer 2022, in einem Geschäft erscheinen wird, und versuchen, Verbrauchertrends vorherzusagen”, sagte Butts. Wenn Einzelhändler den Trend falsch verstehen, kann dies zu einem Eilprozess neuer Herstellung und Transport führen, der hohe Kosten verursacht, und bis sie die neuen Einheiten erhalten, können sie den Trend immer noch verpassen. „Damit können Sie auf aktuelle heiße Trends reagieren“, sagte er.

Ein Verbraucher könnte mit einer bestimmten Farbe in ein Geschäft kommen, vielleicht hat er jemanden gesehen, der sie trägt, und innerhalb von ein oder zwei Tagen kann die Kleidung produziert werden und der Händler muss nicht 10.000 Hemden im Voraus bestellen. “Stoffe nach Kundenwunsch zu färben ist wirklich aufregend”, sagte Butts.

Nachhaltigkeit und der Bekleidungskonsument

Datacolor konzentriert sich darauf, Farben in numerische Codes zu übersetzen, die zwischen Designern und Textilherstellern in der Lieferkette kommuniziert werden können, die Notwendigkeit, während des Designprozesses physische Muster hin und her zu versenden, und die Unterstützung der Qualitätskontrolle im Zusammenhang mit der Sicherstellung der Farbe ist richtig, wenn es um die Herstellung von Tausenden von Teilen geht. Das ist ein effizienterer Ansatz für die Bekleidungsproduktion, als wenn ein Designer an einem Standort Farbpaletten an Färbereien auf der ganzen Welt schickt, die dann Stoffmuster zur visuellen Überprüfung zurücksenden müssen – “hin und her, bis der Designer etwas findet, das ihm gefällt”. Butts sagte.

Aber ob es sich um digitale Innovation oder färbende Innovation handelt, der Einzelhandel hat ein Nachhaltigkeitsproblem, das weiterhin schwierig zu lösen sein wird. Schnellere Kommunikation im Design- und Herstellungsprozess und schnellere Mode locken Käufer, aber ein häufigeres Umdrehen eines Kleiderschranks ist nicht unbedingt nachhaltiger, selbst wenn die zugrunde liegenden Prozesse zur Herstellung des Kleidungsstücks weniger Ressourcen und Energie erfordern. Und den Verbrauchern mehr Gründe zu geben, in Geschäfte zu kommen – und möglicherweise länger zu warten, bis ein benutzerdefinierter Artikel fertig ist, was möglicherweise zu noch mehr Käufen führt – bedeutet mehr Konsum.

“Sie können alle großen Pigmente in den Maschinen entfernen, aber am Ende bleibt immer noch ein Kleidungsstück oder ein Stoff übrig”, sagte Butts. „Diese Frage muss noch angegangen werden. Ich sehe gerne Verbesserungen im Färbeprozess, aber wir müssen Nachhaltigkeit noch immer aus einer End-to-End-Sicht betrachten.“

“Seien wir ehrlich”, sagte Siegel. “Im Einzelhandel ist es am nachhaltigsten, den Artikel erst gar nicht zu verkaufen.”

Eine weniger schädliche und weniger energieintensive Produktion mit einem geringeren CO2-Fußabdruck ist eine gute Sache für Einzelhändler und Marken, aber sie befasst sich nicht mit Verbraucherabfällen und Mülldeponien, weshalb sich Einzelhandelsmodelle auf verschiedene Weise entwickeln, einschließlich des Schwerpunkts auf Wiederverkauf und Wiederverwendung von Unternehmen wie Rent the Runway, die ging letzte Woche an die Öffentlichkeitund Wiederverwendung von Elementen, um den Lebenszyklus zu verlängern.

Die Ralph Lauren-Dow-Partnerschaft mag insofern neuartig sein, als ihre Nachhaltigkeit in der Herstellungsgeschichte zu einer neuen Erzählung im Erlebnishandel für den Verbraucher führen kann, aber keine Marke hat die Antwort auf die größere Frage.

“Die Einzelhändler sind im Geschäft, mehr Einheiten zu verkaufen, aber auch, ihre Nachhaltigkeit zu verbessern. Die Frage ist, wie man die beiden heiratet”, sagte Siegel. „Sie müssen einen Drahtseilakt ausbalancieren, um besser zu sein, ohne die Verbraucher zu entfremden, und die Verbraucher davon zu überzeugen, dass das Beste ist, wegzugehen. Und diese Geschichte muss noch geschrieben werden.“

Stimulus Cash Minimized Impression Retail Closures Had on Retailer Credit score Playing cards

Pheelings Media / Getty Images / iStockphoto

Despite limited access to physical stores at the start of the pandemic, retail credit card-backed securities have not and have not been affected by store closures lead to increased failures, according to data from Fitch Ratings.

Stimulus update: Child tax credit & Golden State money has been sent, find out where yours is
Continue reading: Petition for 4th Stimulus for Monthly Payments of $ 2,000 Reaches 2.9 million signatures

After three rounds of stimulus, more Americans were able to put cash into savings or on outstanding debt. A study by Northwestern Mutual found that personal debt has fallen by more than 20% since 2019.

“The fact that people are making significant strides in deleveraging is encouraging to see, especially at a time when many are still recovering from the financial impact and uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,” Christian said Mitchell, Executive Vice President & Chief Customer Officer at Northwestern Mutual.

Fact check: Will there be a fourth stimulus check?

The performance of the retail credit card trust is largely influenced by consumer strength. While fees slowed at the beginning of the pandemic, they have since increased to higher levels than they were before the pandemic. Fitch Ratings cites consumer willingness to use federal unemployment benefits and individual stimulus checks to help settle credit card debt.

According to Fitch’s retail credit card index, the 12-month average of late payments of 60 days or more fell from 2.78% in March last year to 1.77% in August. Withdrawal rates are still low with a 12-month average of 4.92% (as of August 2021 from 7% in March 2020) The increase in credit card balances continues to show an upward trend.

Discover: Credit card advice you absolutely need
To learn: Millennials and Generation Z Financial Confidence Raised 60% During COVID-19

Fitch Ratings also noted that as the delta variant spreads, it is too early to say if the balance continues to rise and Consumer confidence is falling. Retail cards also have a lower consumer payment priority.

The story goes on

More from GOBankingRates

Last updated: September 23, 2021

This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Stimulus Money minimized the impact of retail closures on store credit cards

New York Metropolis Enacts Biometrics Regulation for Meals and Drink Institutions, Leisure Venues, and Retail Shops

New York Biometric Identification Information Act goes into effect July 9th. The law applies to food and beverage stores, entertainment venues, and retail stores in New York City that collect, store, convert, store, or share biometric identification information (e.g., retinal or iris scans, fingerprints, voice prints, and hand scans). of customers. According to the law, affected companies must post clear, noticeable notices near all customer entrances to their facilities. The law gives injured customers a private right to sue with 30 days’ notice and a grace period, with damages between $ 500 and $ 5,000 per violation and legal fees.

Effective July 9th, pursuant to Section 22-1202 (a) of the New York City Administrative Act, New York City businesses that collect, store, transform, store, or disclose biometric identification information from customers must disclose, or share, such collection, storage, conversion, storage , if applicable, by placing a clear and prominent sign near all customer entrances to their facilities. This signage must use plain, simple language.

Essential elements of the law are:

Definitions

  • Commercial establishments. The definition of commercial establishments is limited to entertainment venues, retail stores, or catering establishments.
  • Places of entertainment. Entertainment venues refers to any private or public entertainment facility such as theaters, stadiums, arenas, race tracks, museums, amusement parks, observatories, or any other location where attractions, performances, concerts, exhibitions, sports games, or competitions are held.
  • Biometric identifier information. The term biometric identifier information means a physiological or biological characteristic used by or on behalf of a commercial entity, individually or in combination, to identify or help identify an individual, including, but not limited to: (i ) a retinal or iris scan, (ii) a fingerprint or voice print, (iii) a scan of the hand or face geometry, or any other identifying feature.

Prohibition of the use of biometrics

  • Section 22-1202 (b) prohibits commercial establishments from selling, renting, trading, sharing, or otherwise using such biometric identifier information.

Private right of action

The law contains a private right of action that provides for the following:

  • Notice and healing period. Aggrieved parties must give written notice to the offending parties at least 30 days prior to commencement of a lawsuit alleging a commercial establishment of violating 22-1202 (a). Actions alleging violation of 22-1202 (b) do not require prior written notice stating that commercial entities may not sell, share, or benefit in any way from a customer’s biometric information.
  • Statutory Compensation. Dominant parties may reclaim: (i) US $ 500 for any unhealed disclosure breach or negligent breach of prohibition on sale / disclosure of biometric information; (ii) $ 5,000 for each willful or negligent breach of the No Sale / Transfer; (iii) reasonable attorney fees and expenses; and (iv) other remedies, including an injunction, as the court deems appropriate.

Exceptions

  • The law does not apply to government agencies, employees, or agents.
  • The disclosure requirement in 22-1202 (a) does not apply to financial institutions or companies that collect biometric identification information through photos or video recordings if: (i) the collected images or videos are not analyzed by software or applications that identify or assist with identification by persons based on physiological or biological characteristics, and (ii) the images or videos will not be shared, sold or rented to any third party other than law enforcement agencies.

Amazon holds on to prime on-line retail spot

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

How Amazon is preparing for its annual megasale on Prime Day, its reign as the country’s largest online retailer is impressive: it is expected to generate more than 40% of the country’s e-commerce sales by the end of 2021.

Amazon’s dominance on the internet has only grown as online shopping becomes second nature for many consumers. This is exactly what has happened in the past 13 years.

In 2008, e-commerce sales represented only 3.6% of total retail sales in the United States, according to eMarketer. After growing gradually year on year, that number rose to 14% in 2020 as the Covid pandemic boosted online spending on everything from groceries and toilet paper to spinning wheels and workout clothes. Ecommerce sales are set to account for 15.3% of total retail sales by the end of this year and grow to 23.5% by 2025, eMarketer said.

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In second place behind Amazon and well behind the big box chain Walmart is expected to occupy about 7% of the digital retail market this year. Follows the two Ebay, Apple, Home depot, aim and Best buy, according to eMarketer.

As in previous years, Walmart and Target are holding competing deals events that coincide with Amazon Prime Day 2021. Both discount stores will start selling on Sunday, but Walmart’s offerings will extend through Wednesday, while Target and Amazon will end on Tuesday. Both Walmart and Target are hoping to reach customers who are already browsing the web for summer discounts on Prime Day.

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According to a recent research report of JPMorgan, Amazon is well on its way to overtaking Walmart as the largest US retailer in 2022 as it gains a growing share of the overall e-commerce market. The accelerated adoption of internet shopping by consumers during the Covid pandemic has also given other Amazon businesses a boost, JPMorgan said.

EMarketer predicts that total US digital revenue on Prime Day will grow 17.3% year over year to $ 12.18 billion. Sales, which will be exclusively on Amazon on Prime Day, will increase 18.3% from 2020 levels to $ 7.31 billion, it said.

Reporting on Amazon Prime Day 2021

Read more about Amazon and others scheduled for this year’s sales events:

Last year Amazon’s typical July time for its shopping extravaganza was postponed until October due to the pandemic. Prime Day finally marked the unofficial start of the Christmas shopping season.

Back to a more normal schedule, this year’s event has been postponed a bit in June. Experts say the company wants to increase spending in what is typically a slower time on the retail calendar. The new time could also lead to an earlier start shot for back-to-school shopping.

“Amazon will be shy when they announce this … so they have the benefit of knowing what they are doing to make sure they are in a good position,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman of retail and sales at Deloitte said in an interview. “While the others answer.”

—CNBCs Nate Rattner contributed to this report.

Cerberus-backed My Cash to purchase HSBC’s French retail financial institution

LONDON / PARIS, June 18 (Reuters) – HSBC (HSBA.L) has agreed to sell its French retail business to My Money Group, backed by private equity group Cerberus, ending a long effort to divest the troubled business as the UK bank moves to Asia.

My Money announced the agreement in a statement on Friday.

HSBC has tried to reduce its presence in some European and North American markets, where it is struggling with larger domestic players, while Cerberus already holds shares in Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and Commerzbank (CBKG.DE). Continue reading

“With the support of funds managed by Cerberus Capital Management, My Money Group can support the growth of HSBC Continental Europe’s French retail network by leveraging our market knowledge and digital transformation expertise,” said their CEO Eric Shehadeh.

The transaction provides for My Money to take over the 244 branches of HSBC, around 3900 employees and 24 billion euros in assets and create a new challenger bank in France’s overcrowded retail banking landscape in one fell swoop.

My Money said it will revive the Credit Commercial de France (CCF) brand, which bank HSBC bought for around € 11 billion 21 years ago as it tried to break into one of Europe’s largest banking markets.

Under French law, the two parties are required to consult employees on the transaction, and if HSBC and My Money decide to proceed, it could be signed in the third or fourth quarter of this year.

My Money wants to invest 200 million euros in the technology infrastructure of the HSBC unit.

Reporting by Lawrence White and Gwenaelle Barzic; Editing by Sudip Kar-Gupta

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Retail gross sales producer value index Might 2021

Producer prices rose faster in May in nearly 11 years as inflation continued to build in the US economy, the Department of Labor reported Tuesday.

The 6.6% increase was the largest increase in the final demand index in the past 12 months since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking the data point in November 2010.

On a monthly basis, the producer price index for final demand rose 0.8%, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 0.6%.

That higher price pressure came amid a sharp drop in retail sales, which fell 1.3% in May, which was worse than the 0.6% estimate, according to the Census Bureau.

Goods inflation remained the dominant inflationary force, increasing 1.5% versus a 0.6% increase in services. In the pandemic economy, goods are way ahead of services as economic barriers constrained consumer demand for service-related purchases.

Excluding food and energy, the 12-month terminal demand PPI rose 5.3%, which was also the largest increase since the BLS began tracking that number in August 2014.

Significant price increases on the manufacturer side came from non-ferrous metals, which rose by 6.9% over the course of the month. Grain prices also rose 25.7%, oil seeds rose 19.5%, and beef and veal rose 10.5%. Fresh fruit and melons were down 1.9%, while large organic chemicals and asphalt were also down.

Although services continued to be a smaller contributor to overall producer price pressures, the index rose for the fifth consecutive month.

The higher numbers are likely to add to an ongoing debate about whether the inflationary pressures of the past few months will continue.

Federal Reserve officials believe the current spike will prove temporary as supply and demand issues balance out and low levels are flushed out of the system during the pandemic lockdown.

However, several notable Wall Street names including Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan and hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC on Monday that it was time for the Fed to reverse the policy put in place during the pandemic to withdraw of easy money.

The Fed kicks off a two-day meeting on Tuesday at which no major monetary policy changes are expected to be announced.

While inflation data has caught the attention of the street, consumers have withdrawn their purchases as the impact of government economic controls wore off.

Excluding cars, retail sales fell 0.7% in May, well below the 0.5% estimate. Without petrol stations, sales fell by 1.5%.

Sales in building materials and gardening supplies were down 5.9% during the month, while sales in other stores were down 5% and sales in general merchandise were down 3.3%. Clothing and accessories stores grew 2%, while bars and restaurants grew 1.8%.

Sales are now dramatically higher than a year ago when the country faced a pandemic that left 22 million people unemployed.

Clothing and accessories sales increased 200.3% from May 2020, while hospitality and restaurants increased 70.6% and electrical and home appliance stores increased 91.3%.

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Dogecoin increase is a retail phenomenon pushed by Powell giving cash to all people, Novogratz says

Bloomberg

Central Banks to Pour Money Into Economy Despite Sharp Rebound

(Bloomberg) — The aggressive rebound in global economic growth still isn’t enough for most of the world’s central banks to pull back on their emergency stimulus.In Bloomberg’s quarterly review of monetary policy covering 90% of the world economy, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are among the 16 institutions set to hold interest rates this year.The outlook suggests officials still want to guarantee the recovery from last year’s coronavirus recession by maintaining ultra-low borrowing costs and asset-buying programs. That may require them to accept any accompanying bounce in inflation.Six central banks, most of them in emerging markets, are still predicted to hike, including Brazil, Russia and Nigeria. Turkey is the only one of those monitored which is forecast to cut borrowing costs this year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“For advanced economies, continued virus uncertainty, deep labor market scars, and a recognition that past decisions erred on the side of deflationary preemption will conspire to keep policy looser for longer. In many emerging markets, currency stress means central banks don’t have that luxury.”–Tom Orlik, chief economistHere is Bloomberg’ quarterly guide to 23 of the world’s top central banks:GROUP OF SEVENU.S. Federal ReserveCurrent federal funds rate (upper bound): 0.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.25%A key question for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues is when to start talking about scaling back their massive bond purchases if the economy continues to recover as they expect.Officials have vowed to keep buying $120 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds every month until they see “substantial further progress” on inflation and employment. That test could be met sooner than anticipated if the U.S. labor market continues to perform as it did in March, when a better-than-expected 916,000 new jobs were added.Powell has so far avoided putting any time frame around when he thinks it’ll be appropriate to slow bond buying, but promises to give investors plenty of advance warning. The Fed has also signaled it expects to keep rates near zero through 2023.Officials at their meeting in March maintained that dovish message, according to a record of their discussion released on April 7, while Powell continues to stress the recovery remains incomplete and uneven.Part of its hesitancy to talk publicly about bond purchases stems from harsh experience: The Fed wants to avoid a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, when unexpected news that it was thinking about slowing bond buying roiled financial markets and hurt the economy.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The U.S. economy may be launching into the fastest growth since 1983, but the Fed is firmly resolved to not only maintain the current stance of policy accommodation deeper into the recovery, but also to retract it more gradually under their new outcome-based framework for achieving its dual mandate. While Fed officials previously talked of seeing the ‘whites of the eyes’ of inflation before responding through policy tightening, the new framework is more akin to waiting to see inflation’s coattails — as the central bank is prepared to endure a ‘transitory’ overshoot of their 2% inflation target.”–Carl RiccadonnaEuropean Central BankCurrent deposit rate: -0.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: -0.5%The ECB has pledged to keep financing conditions for governments, companies and households “favorable” until the coronavirus crisis phase is over, using its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program to keep bond yields low, and dishing out ultra-cheap loans to banks.PEPP is due to run until at least the end of March 2022 and while policy makers say they won’t spend the full amount unless needed, most economists expect them to do so. The euro-area recovery has been delayed by a slow vaccination rollout, and ECB President Christine Lagarde has repeatedly warned of the dangers of ending support too early.The scene is set for a vibrant debate toward the end of the year on when and how to scale back emergency aid and what should replace it. In the meantime, the ECB is urging governments to hurry up with their 800 billion-euro joint recovery fund.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The ECB will continue buying bonds through its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program throughout 2021. We expect acquisitions to be front-loaded in 2Q to tackle the rise in government borrowing costs before reverting to a slower pace for the remainder of the year.”–David PowellBank of JapanCurrent policy-rate balance: -0.1%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: -0.1%The Bank of Japan is likely to be keep its main policy settings on cruise control after its biggest policy review since 2016 in March. The review gave the BOJ more scope to reduce its asset buying after a fine-tuning it characterized as a shoring up of its stimulus framework for the longer term.Despite fears of inflation elsewhere in the world, a quarterly outlook report in April is expected to show that the BOJ doesn’t see price growth reaching a stable 2% before Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April 2023. That will help back up the institution’s argument that it had to take a more flexible approach to policy.Investors and economists will closely scrutinize how the changes will affect the BOJ’s market operations including its pace of bond and ETF buying, and how quickly it will step in to stop any jumps in 10-year yields after clarifying that its target range reaches up to around 0.25%.BOJ watchers will also be looking to see if the bank extends its special pandemic funding measures from the current September expiry date. With bankruptcies falling and bank lending growing, there appears little reason to add to the measures supporting businesses. Still, with only about 1% of the population vaccinated in early April, uncertainties for the economy remain with virus cases ticking up again in some major cities.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The BOJ is preparing to shift from emergency pandemic support back to its long-elusive goal of 2% inflation. Adjustments to its yield curve control and ETF purchases add flexibility and endurance. It will be a protracted fight — even the BOJ sees inflation falling short of target over its three-year forecast horizon. It’s set to stay on hold for the time being — though it may need to accommodate more JGB issuance if the government steps up fiscal stimulus this summer.”–Yuki MasujimaBank of EnglandCurrent bank rate: 0.1%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.1%Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is firmly on the fence about whether his next move is to administer another dose of stimulus or monetary tightening to the U.K. economy. Financial markets already have priced out the prospect of negative rates, moving gilt yields and the pound higher than they were a year ago.After the worst recession in three centuries, the U.K. is headed for a sharp rebound after one of the world’s most successful coronavirus vaccination programs. Debate at the central bank is about whether the recovery will absorb all the workers left out of a job during the crisis and push up inflation, or leave scars that require further care.While the latest data including a boom in house prices suggest upside risks, companies are increasingly concerned that Britain’s exit from the European Union has choked back trade, leaving the prospect of a painful restructuring of the economy after the pandemic clears. At the institution’s next decision on May 6, policy makers will weigh whether to ease the pace of bond-buying, which at 4.4 billion pounds ($6 billion) a week would, unless adjusted, deliver more than the target for 150 billion pounds of stimulus this year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The year started with speculation rife that the BOE could take the historic step of reducing rates below zero. While the central bank looks like it will formally adopt negative rates as a tool in 3Q, a rapid rollout of the vaccine and a fiscal boost in the budget have greatly reduced the chances of them being used. We expect the BOE to stay on hold for the remainder of the year, emphasizing its higher-than-usual bar for tightening policy.”–Dan HansonBank of CanadaCurrent overnight lending rate: 0.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.25%The Bank of Canada is signaling it will be one of the first Group of Seven central banks to start paring back monetary policy support as the nation’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis accelerates.Analysts anticipate next steps to pare bond purchases will come as early as a policy decision on April 21, while a so-called taper in the U.S. isn’t expected until next year.Canada’s central bank has been buying a minimum of C$4 billion ($3.2 billion) in government bonds each week, accumulating more than C$250 billion of the securities over the past year. That pace is likely no longer warranted with an outlook that appears to improving dramatically by the week, helped by a recovery in commodity prices and a robust housing market.The central bank, however, has sought to ease any worries of an imminent change to its benchmark overnight rate — currently at 0.25%. Officials have pledged to keep it there until economic slack has been fully absorbed — expected well after the quantitative easing program ends.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“A positive reassessment of the growth outlook will drive only a limited shift in BoC communications in April. The labor market is still a long way from full recovery, a factor that will increasingly dominate thinking about the inflation mandate. In turn, a near-term pickup in prices will be treated as transitory. Nonetheless, an announcement to reduce QE purchases at the April meeting would be consistent with prior communications, even if a rate hike is still more likely to be an early-2023 event, in our view.”–Andrew HusbyBank of Canada DashboardBRICS CENTRAL BANKSPeople’s Bank of ChinaCurrent 1-year best lending rate: 3.85%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 3.85%The PBOC cut lending rates and deployed various quantitative tools to inject liquidity into the pandemic-hit economy last year, on top of asking banks to increase loans. That helped to shore up growth but also pushed debt levels to a record high, fueling concerns of property bubbles and financial risks. With the economy’s recovery now well on track, the central bank is seeking to rein in its stimulus without derailing that rebound.The PBOC is likely to normalize policy by moderating credit expansion rather than hiking rates, economists say. Officials have said they want to match the growth in money supply and credit with the expansion in nominal GDP this year, and stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio. The PBOC recently asked banks to curtail loan growth for the rest of 2021 to keep new advances at roughly the same level as last year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Robust growth, yet with pockets of weakness, suggest little need to the central bank to move the rate either way in 2021. In the meantime, the central bank will continue to tamp down on credit growth in a gradual taper to head off financial risks. It’s also likely to keep up targeted support for small private companies — an area of persistent weakness in the recovery.”–Chang Shu and David QuReserve Bank of IndiaCurrent RBI repurchase rate: 4%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 4%India’s central bank formally embarked on the path of QE in early April, pledging to buy an assured amount of sovereign bonds this quarter as it fights to keep borrowing costs low and support a recovery in Asia’s third-largest economy. While the RBI already had been buying government securities in the secondary market, April’s meeting marked the first time the central bank committed upfront to buy a specified amount.Hamstrung by underlying price pressures that could gather pace in coming months, Governor Shaktikanta Das and five other members of the monetary policy committee voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 4%. However, Das pledged to maintain a dovish stance if economic conditions deteriorate as a number of provinces including Maharashtra, home to the financial capital of Mumbai, grapple with lockdowns amid a fresh wave of Covid-19 cases.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The RBI is likely to look through above-target inflation in the near term, with its primary focus on securing a durable recovery in growth. We see it holding the repo rate at 4% through the fiscal year ending March 2022. Sovereign bond purchases in its new QE program will be its main easing tool in the quarters ahead and should help tamp down longer-term yields to keep borrowing costs low to support the economy.”–Abhishek GuptaCentral Bank of BrazilCurrent Selic target rate: 2.75%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 5.5%Brazil’s central bank has begun paring back monetary stimulus as inflation surges despite a new wave of the pandemic that threatens the economic recovery. Policy makers raised the benchmark Selic rate by 75 basis points in March, the most in a decade, and signaled that a second move of the same magnitude is on the way at their next decision in May.Despite the institution’s assurances that price shocks are temporary, futures traders are betting even bigger hikes are in the pipeline. Driven by higher fuel costs, annual inflation blew past the upper limit of the central bank’s target range in March, hitting a four-year high.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Recent actions and communications suggest the BCB will try to right the fiscal wrong with monetary policy. Fiscal uncertainties were an important driver of the currency meltdown in the first quarter; their likely persistence suggests that the real may remain misaligned with Brazil’s robust external fundamentals. In the meantime, the BCB is set to continue to raise the policy rate, fearful of the inflationary impacts of the weaker currency, and regardless of economic slack. The real may close the year at 5.30 per U.S. dollar, and the Selic at 5.5% — still below the neutral rate (estimated to be 6% to 7%).”–Adriana DupitaBank of RussiaCurrent key rate: 4.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 5.5%The Bank of Russia surprised markets by starting its rate-hiking cycle earlier than expected. The inflation spike proved to be more prominent than policy makers thought before, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said after the board raised the key rate by 25 basis points in March and signaled more increases. The central bank will start publishing forecasts for the key-rate range starting their next meeting on April 23.The ruble dropped in value after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian sovereign ruble bonds at the primary market. It recovered some of the losses but the risk of additional steps is weighing on the currency. The U.S. has also warned of “consequences” if jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny dies. These heightened geopolitical tensions are providing another argument for a bigger rate hike this week.Inflation peaked in March at the level last seen in late 2016, fueled by food prices and the weaker ruble. President Vladimir Putin made the cost of living a political issue when he told the government in December to put caps on prices of certain goods. Since then, Russia increased export duty on grain and negotiated with producers to set limits on some food staples. All administrative steps to curb prices are distorting the market signals and Russia needs to move away from that, Nabiullina said recently.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Spiking inflation and a swift rebound in demand caught the Bank of Russia by surprise. Higher yields and fresh sanctions are layering on risk. Policy makers have turned hawkish, signaling significant tightening in 2021. We expect a steady pace of quarter-point hikes in the near term, which will give the central bank some room to maneuver in the second half of the year.”–Scott JohnsonSouth African Reserve BankCurrent repo average rate: 3.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 3.5%The South African central bank’s next move will be to tighten as it projects inflation will tick up to around the 4.5% mid-point of its target range. Still, the timing of the first hike is uncertain.The implied policy rate path of the MPC’s quarterly projection model in March indicated two increases of 25 basis points in the second and fourth quarters of 2021. Last week, Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the central bank is in no rush to take the benchmark back to where it was before the pandemic and that it would likely maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance to support the economy as long as the inflation outlook gives it room to do so.Forward-rate agreements, used to speculate borrowing costs are pricing in only one 25 basis point increase by year-end. Most economists are less hawkish and see the rate remaining at its record low until the end of 2021.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The coronavirus is likely to keep spreading until there’s a significant ramp up in the governments vaccination program. As such, the economy is will remain fragile and highly unpredictable this year. This, together with the benign inflation outlook should keep rates on hold this year.”–Boingotlo GasealahweMINT CENTRAL BANKSBanco de MexicoCurrent overnight rate: 4%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 4%Mexico’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 4% in March, amid an inflation surge that is leading many economists to predict its monetary easing cycle has drawn to a close. Led by rising fuel costs, consumer prices rose 4.67% last month from a year earlier, jumping above the ceiling of the institution’s target.Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon still didn’t close the door to additional rate cuts, saying that officials will continue taking a data-dependent approach to monetary policy. Consumer prices, he said, have been pressured by supply shocks, a weaker peso, and a shift in demand for goods instead of services, but the Mexican economy is likely to have a negative output gap “for some time.”Banxico, as the bank is known, expects annual inflation to peak during the second quarter, before slowing toward the end of the year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“We expect Banxico to hold its benchmark rate at 4% in 2021. The rate remains high relative to peers and previous economic downturns, but resilient high inflation due to lingering shocks offset disinflationary pressure from ample economic slack and limit room for more accommodation.”–Felipe HernandezBank IndonesiaCurrent 7-day reverse repo rate: 3.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 3.75%Rising global bond yields have all but shut Bank Indonesia’s window for further easing this year. Governor Perry Warjiyo is turning his attention to preserving the country’s interest-rate differential from the U.S. to stem foreign outflows and protect the battered rupiah, which he considers “very undervalued.” Targeted macroprudential measures, such as the recent relaxation of home and auto loan rules, will likely be Warjiyo’s main lever to revive bank lending and aid growth.The central bank insists it won’t unwind monetary support for the economy anytime soon, with demand and inflation still weak. The institution also has signaled that when it is time to tighten, it could focus on restricting liquidity before raising rates.That will be one less thing for investors to worry about as they keep an eye on growing political pressure for BI to work more closely with the government. President Joko Widodo has called for the central bank’s mandate to be expanded to include employment and economic growth, even as he pledged to respect BI’s autonomy.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Bank Indonesia appears limited in its ability to cut rates further this year, even though still-sluggish domestic demand is likely to justify more easing. Instead, heavy capital outflows — linked to U.S. reflation and concerns about new constraints put on BI’s independence — may require rate hikes to support the rupiah, instead of more concerted FX intervention that depletes reserves. Other measures would likely be deployed to counter the drag on domestic demand.”–Tamara HendersonCentral Bank of TurkeyCurrent 1-week repo rate: 19%Forecast for end of 2021: 16%Installed after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan abruptly fired his market-friendly predecessor following a bigger-than-expected rate increase, new Governor Sahap Kavcioglu is under pressure to reduce borrowing costs to boost growth.Turkey’s central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged in Kavcioglu’s first monetary policy meeting. While the decision matched market expectations, the institution omitted an earlier pledge to keep monetary policy tight and even deliver additional hikes if needed. Although Kavcigolu has said he would not rush to loosen the stance he inherited, the changes in the rates statement prompted further speculation that cuts might be imminent.Meantime, Erdogan, who holds the unorthodox view that high rates cause inflation, continues to express his determination to both reduce price growth and reduce borrowing costs to single digits.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The recent firing of the central bank governor sends a clear message about the direction of policy: growth at all costs will be pursued. But rising U.S. yields, higher oil prices and lira depreciation will prevent rate cuts in the short term. If global conditions warrant tightening, it’ll be delivered through the backdoor.”–Ziad DaoudCentral Bank of NigeriaCurrent central bank rate: 11.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 13%The Nigerian central bank is inching closer to hiking its benchmark rate for the first time since July 2016. In March, three of nine MPC members who attended the policy-setting meeting voted to tighten by at least 50 basis points, a shift from January when the panel was unanimous in its decision to hold.Governor Godwin Emefiele said at the time the central bank can only effectively shift to taming inflation that’s at a four-year high once the recovery of Africa’s largest economy from last year’s recession has reached a comfortable level. Since then the International Monetary Fund has increased its projection for the country’s 2021 output growth to 2.5% from 1.5%. That would be the fastest expansion since 2015.A rebound in oil prices could improve the prospects for growth further, giving the central bank room to focus on taming inflation, even if it’s only from the second half of the year. Higher rates will also help support the naira, which was devalued twice in 2020.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Nigeria’s inflation rate continues to surge, and has been stuck above the central bank target range for the past five years. However, the Central Bank of Nigeria has overlooked the recent uptick, choosing instead to support the economy with a 200 basis point rate cut. We expect it to hike rates again this year, when the recovery has gathered pace and the policy focus shifts back to inflation.”–Boingotlo GasealahweOTHER G-20 CENTRAL BANKSBank of KoreaCurrent base rate: 0.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.5%The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain a long hold as its optimism over the economy is tempered by continued uncertainty over the outlook and a slow vaccine rollout. The central bank sees faster-than-previously expected growth in the mid-3% range as exports surge on global tech demand and recoveries in China and the U.S. But Governor Lee Ju-yeol has played down talk that a tightening of policy is anywhere near the horizon.Keeping the BOK cautious is a renewed uptick in domestic virus cases. The resurgence is pushing the government to consider ramping up public restrictions on activity. A shortage of vaccines is also making it increasingly unlikely that the country will achieve its goal of herd immunity by year-end. If things take a turn for the worse, the central bank doesn’t have much room to go the other way and reduce its benchmark rate further after 75 basis points of cuts last year. Rising household debt poses a risk to the country’s financial stability and Lee has said the rate is already near its lower bound.For the time being, standing pat appears the institution’s best option for safeguarding the recovery while ensuring financial imbalances don’t accumulate further. The majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg see the BOK holding its policy rate at the current level until the third quarter of next year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The Bank of Korea has likely reached the end of its easing cycle. While uncertainties surrounding the pandemic remain high, South Korea’s economy is poised to rebound in 2021 and the central bank remains concerned about growing financial risks. The BOK has cautioned that the government’s large borrowing plans could lead to bond market imbalances, but it will continue using ad-hoc bond purchases to contain yields rather than shift to QE.”–Justin JimenezReserve Bank of AustraliaCurrent cash rate target: 0.1%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.1%With the RBA targeting unemployment in the low 4% range and pledging rates won’t rise until inflation has sustainably returned to the 2-3% target, monetary stimulus will be in play for some time.The central bank has reinforced the economy’s rapid recovery by holding down borrowing costs through a firm defense of three-year debt — its variant of yield curve control. That has also helped weaken the currency a touch in combination with QE that targets 5-10 year securities outside the YCC framework.Key decisions over whether to roll over the yield target to the November 2024 maturity, and whether to extend QE when the current round expires in September/October will likely be influenced by the economy’s resilience to a withdrawal of government stimulus.While the RBA has also said it will “carefully” monitor surging home prices, any action to stem gains is likely to come from tighter bank lending rules, not monetary tightening.The RBA has learned from its experience in 2009, when it led the world in raising rates. This time round it will wait for other major economies to move first to avoid renewed currency strength choking off the expansion.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Last year was a consequential one for the RBA — it ventured into yield curve control and QE. This year it will be less active, focused more on fine tuning. A pressing task will be to curb appreciation in the local currency. Another, working with other regulators to reinstate macro prudential policy restraints to restrain a resurgent housing market. Labor market slack is set to damp inflation, and keep the cash rate unchanged, for several years yet.”–James McIntyreCentral Bank of ArgentinaCurrent rate floor: 38%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 38%Argentina has relied on a mix of orthodox and unconventional policies to maintain its currency market relatively calm. While largely refraining so far this year from the mass money printing of 2020, policy makers have amplified price controls and slowed a crawling peg depreciation in a bid to cool inflation, currently around 40% a year. In order to absorb liquidity, the central bank has allowed financial institutions to pile into its short-term debt, with the amount of outstanding repo notes rising to over 1.5 trillion pesos ($16.2 billion) from 125 billion pesos a year ago.Monetary policy in the medium term remains clouded by the uncertainty surrounding negotiations with the IMF. The government has indicated a deal is unlikely to happen before mid-term elections in October, and Central Bank President Miguel Pesce has stayed on the sidelines of talks. While foreign reserves have slightly rebounded this year, they hover near a four-year low. The government’s strict currency controls, once labeled temporary measures, have no expiration date in sight.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The IMF will probably require Argentina to adjust its policies in exchange for an Extended Fund Facility deal. Until then, however, we expect the BCRA to stay put. The policy rate will likely be on hold at 38% even as inflation accelerates, and the peso will likely depreciate at a pace slightly below inflation. Once a deal is struck — likely after the October mid-term legislative elections — the BCRA will probably bring real rates to positive territory and to reduce the currency misalignment.”–Adriana DupitaG-10 CURRENCIES AND EAST EUROPE ECONOMIESSwiss National BankCurrent policy rate: -0.75%Median economist forecast for end of 2021: -0.75%The SNB’s monetary policy consists of negative rates and currency-market interventions.In light of the small local bond market, the strategy is the most effective, SNB President Thomas Jordan has said. Data also indicate the intensity of interventions has diminished in recent months, as the franc dropped versus the euro.Having slumped the most in decades due to the pandemic, the Swiss economy is due to return to its pre-crisis level in the latter half of this year. Still, inflation also remains weak.Sveriges RiksbankCurrent repo rate: 0%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0%Sweden’s central bank remains focused on bond purchases to keep rates low and stabilize markets. Still, Some policy makers are highlighting the option of a rate cut to stimulate demand and restore confidence in the Riksbank’s 2% inflation target.The central bank kept rates unchanged at its last meeting, and maintained its QE program at 700 billion kronor ($82 billion). Policy makers agreed that it was too soon to discuss withdrawing monetary support despite signs of economic stabilization and an uptick in consumer prices.Governor Stefan Ingves has signaled he prefers QE to rate cuts, and said last month he sees no risk of above-target inflation “in the foreseeable future.” Meanwhile, the property market soaring to record price levels is an increasing worry for Ingves, who said Sweden’s high level of household debt “will become problematic sooner or later.”What Bloomberg Economics Says:“A rebound in global trade is benefiting export-oriented Sweden and the economy has recouped more of the pandemic loss than expected by Riksbank. Short-term risks from new virus measures and a weak outlook for inflation due to modest wage growth still means policy makers won’t be in any hurry to withdraw support. The Riksbank has extended its bond-buying scheme until end-2021. We expect Ingves to stay on hold as the recovery takes shape.”–Johanna JeanssonNorges BankCurrent deposit rate: 0%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.25%Norway’s central bank is expected to be the first among wealthy western nations to tighten policy after its economy took a smaller hit than most in 2020. Its March forecast implies that the likelihood of a rate increase is split 50/50 between September and December.While soaring house prices signal financial imbalances are building up, Governor Oystein Olsen has said substantial uncertainty still remains regarding the recovery.Norway’s economic resilience has been boosted in part by an effective lockdown strategy and billions of dollars in government support backed by the country’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund. Still, restrictions to fight the spread of the more contagious strains of Covid-19 this year have hampered the recovery, with a deeper contraction in the first two months than the central bank had forecast.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“A quick rebound from the pandemic slump, sharply rising house prices and above target inflation during the past year give the central bank reason to think about leaving zero rates behind. But not yet. We expect extended virus restrictions to weigh on domestic demand until late in the second quarter. Norges Bank will likely wait until 4Q before lifting off.”–Johanna JeanssonReserve Bank of New ZealandCurrent cash rate: 0.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.25%New Zealand’s red-hot housing market has been driving the outlook for monetary policy this year after the government changed the RBNZ’s remit, forcing it to take house prices into account. After an initial flurry of bets that the central bank could start raising rates in 2022, the emerging consensus is that the cash rate will stay at its record low for longer. That’s partly because a raft of new government measures to cool the property market have taken the pressure off the RBNZ to act.While New Zealand’s successful handling of the pandemic initially enabled its economy to stage a V-shaped recovery, it now faces the possibility of a double-dip recession as its closed border hurts its tourism sector. The opening of a long-awaited travel bubble with Australia in April may help alleviate the pain, but support for the economy is still needed to ensure the recovery stays on track this time. Governor Adrian Orr has also made clear he wants to see a sustained inflation pickup before he considers removing stimulus.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The RBNZ looks set to keep rates on hold this year. It’s likely to use other tools — the Funding for Lending program and asset purchases — if needed to add more support or to sustain maximum downward pressure on the currency. Its immediate attention is likely to remain on surging house prices, which have elevated financial stability risks. It’s already taken macro prudential policy steps, alongside government measures to rein in investor demand. The risks lie with further macro prudential tightening over 2021.”–James McIntyreNational Bank of PolandCurrent cash rate: 0.1%Median economist forecast for end of 2021: 0.1%Poland’s central bank intends to keep its benchmark rate at a record low until at least early next year, when the term of the Monetary Policy Council ends.The economy shrank for the first time in nearly three decades in 2020, and offficials responded by introducing a QE program and reducing the key rate from 1.5% in three steps between March and May.The EU’s biggest eastern economy is set to rebound this year, though the outlook has recently become more uncertain on the third wave of the pandemic.Even as neighboring central banks in the Czech Republic and Hungary are seen taking a less accommodative approach, their policies “play no role whatsoever” in monetary policy in Poland, according to Governor Adam Glapinski.Czech National BankCurrent cash rate: 0.25%Median economist forecast for end of 2021: 0.5%The Czech central bank has been telegraphing monetary tightening for over half a year but the prolonged coronavirus crisis is set to delay the first rate increase until the third quarter.Government programs to protect jobs are driving wages up and deferred consumption is set to fuel inflation once shops and services reopen after one of the world’s deadliest Covid-19 outbreaks. Still, policy makers agreed in March that a “longer-lasting pandemic-induced downturn” will probably mean a slower pace of monetary tightening than outlined in the institution’s forecast, which assumed three rate hikes for this year.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

Excessive-end retail shares present indicators of extra upside

Pedestrians pass outside a Nordstrom Inc. store in the Midtown neighborhood of New York on March 20, 2020.

Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

High-end retail stocks have rallied in recent months and recent trading activity could signal more upside potential on the horizon, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday.

“The non-essential high-end retailers are already active, but the charts interpreted by Bob Lang suggest so Capri Holdings, tapestry, LVMH and Nordstrom could all have more advantages here, yes, thanks to the stimulus checks, “the”Bad money“Host said.

Lang, the founder of ExplosiveOptions.net and a contributor to TheStreet.com, is a trusted technician that Cramer relies on for research into the market.

Cramer noted that last year was the largest period of retail failure in history as coronavirus bans and restrictions weighed on the brick and mortar retail landscape.

As the US conducts its Covid-19 vaccination campaign and approaches a full economic reopening, those companies that have survived the damage could benefit from another round of aid spending that includes a third distribution of direct payments to most Americans.

“This whole group ran out of gas a few weeks ago, then Congress agreed to pump in $ 2 trillion [the economy] and now they look higher on another leg, “said Cramer.

Capri Holdings

“Lang believes this is the kind of stock that gets overbought, but instead of being scared, he says it will stay overbought,” Cramer said, “which means he sees it could revisit old highs . “

tapestry

  • Parents of Coach, Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman
  • The stock is up 51% in the past three months and is within the dollar of its 52-week high
  • The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend momentum indicator, has recently achieved a bullish crossover
  • Chaikin The flow of money is strong

“When the stock fell back to its 50-day moving average in January, this was your chance [to buy it] … Lang thinks Tapestry is a quiet leader with more room to run, “said Cramer.” He’s more optimistic about Tapestry than I am. “

LVMH

  • Parents of Louis Vuitton, Hennessy and Christian Dior
  • The stock is up 8.25% over the past three months, hitting its most recent high
  • Has spent months trading sideways which has created a tortuous springtime situation that tends to lead to an uptrend
  • MACD has made a bullish crossover, institutional investors are buying

“Lang is betting that the big boys aren’t done yet,” said Cramer.

Nordstrom

  • The stock is up 45% over the past three months
  • The 50-day simple moving average crossed the 200-day moving average in December, a bullish signal
  • The bullish crossover is known as the “golden cross”.

“Lang indicates that the MACD is flashing a buy signal, and it doesn’t hurt that the last quarter was spectacularly better than expected,” said Cramer. “Lang’s bet it could take a run at its peak in 2018, up about a 50% increase from here.”

U.S. retail gross sales to rise 6.5% to eight.2% in 2021, Nationwide Retail Federation says

Customers wearing protective masks leave a Uniqlo store in San Francisco, California on Wednesday, February 17, 2021.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Retail sales are expected to grow between 6.5% and 8.2% this year, representing sales of more than $ 4.33 trillion, as the US economy re-opens and people keep growing received the Covid vaccine, the National Retail Federation announced on Wednesday.

A preliminary reading shows retail sales rose 6.7% to $ 4.06 trillion over the past year, according to the industry’s leading retail group. This was largely fueled by an online growth of nearly 22%.

As the year progressed, more Americans turned to websites and apps to buy groceries, comfortable clothes, and housewares. The numbers exclude car dealerships, gas stations and restaurants.

“The development of the economy depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine and its spread,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz in a statement.

“Our main assumption is that vaccination will be effective and allow accelerated growth by mid-year,” he said. “The economy is expected to grow the fastest in over two decades.”

Read the full version of NRF here.

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