5 issues to know earlier than the inventory market opens Friday, Jan. 21

Here are the top news, trends and analysis investors need to start their trading day:

1. Wall Street looks set to extend its losing streak

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on January 20, 2022 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

US stock futures fell Friday, with the Nasdaq Looking for Wall Street’s biggest drop again Netflix Shares tumbled in the premarket on slowing subscriber growth. The Nasdaq fell for a third straight session, ending Thursday almost 12% below its last record close in November. the S&P500 It also fell for three straight days, closing 6.5% below its record close earlier this month. the Dow Jones industry average fell for five straight sessions, ending more than 5.6% below its record close from early January. All three stock benchmarks were up to speed for big weekly losses.

2. Netflix’s slump would wipe out profits through April 2020

Netflix’s shares fell 20% premarket on Friday, suggesting opening prices below $410 each, erasing more than 20 months of gains and over 40% below its all-time high in November. Investors punished the stock after Thursday’s after-the-bell earnings report, which revealed a Decrease in net paid subscriber additions worldwide in the fourth quarter and an even worse forecast for the current first quarter.

  • The video-streaming giant beat fourth-quarter earnings estimates and matched sales, but Wall Street was more concerned about the future.
  • Netflix said it plans to have a more back-end weighted content slate in the first quarter, with big premieres slated for March.

3. Peloton is taking “significant corrective action,” CEO says

peloton said its fiscal second-quarter earnings late Thursday will be within the previously forecast range, as it takes action to reduce costs and improve profitability. However, the fitness equipment maker said it added fewer subscribers than previously expected in the most recent period, which ended Dec. 31.

The stock rallied 8% in pre-market on Friday in the morning after falling nearly 24% in the regular session following a CNBC report that the connected fitness equipment maker temporarily halted production of its stationary bikes and treadmills due to the explosive Demand eased off at the start of the Covid pandemic. Peloton’s stock opening price on Friday would mark an 85% drop from its all-time high of $171.09 set in January 2021.

4. Intel plans to build $20 billion chip manufacturing facility in Ohio

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger at the groundbreaking ceremony for two new chip manufacturing facilities in Chandler, Arizona on Friday, September 24, 2021.

Intel Corporation

intel will invest $20 billion in two new plants in Ohio to manufacture advanced chips, The company announced this on Friday, the first step toward a “mega-site” capable of housing eight $100 billion chip fabs. The proposed investment includes 3,000 permanent jobs and 7,000 construction jobs on the 1,000-acre site outside of Columbus. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger is driving Intel’s expansion plans, particularly in Europe and the US, to compete with global rivals and respond to a global microchip shortage. In September, Intel broke ground on two factories in Arizona as part of its turnaround plan to become a major maker of chips for external customers.

5. US and Russia far apart on Ukraine crisis as top diplomats meet

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken greets Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov before their meeting January 21, 2022 in Geneva, Switzerland.

Alex Brandon | Reuters

The US and Russia try to avoid Another conflict in Europe. However, top diplomats from both nations warned on Friday that no breakthrough was imminent as fears mounted that Moscow was planning to invade Ukraine. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Geneva at what the American called a “critical moment”. Lavrov called the talks “constructive and useful”. Moscow wants a promise that Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, will never be allowed to join NATO and is demanding the withdrawal of allied troops and military equipment from parts of Eastern Europe. The US and NATO have rejected these demands. In 2014, Russia conquered the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.

— Reuters and Associated Press contributed to this report. Follow all market action like a pro CNBC Pro. Get the latest on the pandemic with you CNBC’s coronavirus coverage.

5 issues to know earlier than the inventory market opens Tuesday, Jan. 18

Here are the top news, trends and analysis investors need to start their trading day:

1. The Nasdaq will fall as yields on short and long bonds rise

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the closing bell on January 14, 2022 in New York.

Timothy A Clary | AFP | Getty Images

2. Activision steps up in Microsoft deal to buy video game giant

A player plays the video game ‘Call of Duty: Black Ops’ developed by Treyarch and published by Activision during Paris Games Week October 25, 2018 in Paris, France.

Chesnot | Getty Images

Microsoft will buy video game giants Activision Blizzard in a $68.7 billion all-cash deal. Activision makes popular game franchises like Call of Duty. Activision has been mired in controversy over the past few months over allegations of sexual harassment and misconduct among company executives. Activision’s shares rose about 37% in premarket trading before being halted after the Wall Street Journal first reported on the deal. Microsoft shares fell more than 2% after the announcement.

3. Goldman Sachs missed quarterly earnings; stocks go down

A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. logo hangs on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday May 19, 2010 in New York, United States.

Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Bank gains continued Tuesday morning on Dow shares Goldman Sachs Fourth quarter reporting miss merit since operating costs increased by 23% compared to the previous year. The company’s shares fell 2.8% in the premarket. Sales of $12.64 billion beat estimates. On Friday, JPMorgan Chase, also a Dow component, started the quarterly reporting season. Its shares tumbled premarket after falling 6% despite better-than-expected quarterly earnings and sales. JPMorgan’s Chief Financial Officer told the company would probably be missing a key profit target over the next two years.

4. Oil prices hit more than a seven-year high after the UAE attack

Satellite photos obtained by the Associated Press on Tuesday showed the aftermath of a deadly attack on an oil facility in the UAE capital, claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Planet Labs PBC images analyzed by AP show smoke rising over an Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. tank farm in the Mussafah district of Abu Dhabi on Monday, January 17, 2022.

Planet Labs via AP

US and international oil prices reached more than a seven-year high Tuesday after the United Arab Emirates vowed to retaliate against Iran’s Houthi group in Yemen for Monday’s deadly attack on its capital Abu Dhabi. The UAE is the third largest oil-producing member of OPEC and the seventh largest oil producer in the world, producing just over 4 million barrels per day. Over night, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil rose more than 2% to $85.56 a barrel before paring those gains.

5. BlackRock’s Fink defends annual letter, delivers stock market call

Laurence “Larry” Fink, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of BlackRock.

Chris Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink pushed back against allegations that the wealth manager was using his weight and influence to support a politically correct agenda. “Stakeholder capitalism has nothing to do with politics. It’s not a social or ideological agenda. He didn’t ‘woke up,'” Fink said in his annual letter to corporate leaders, released Monday. Fink echoed those sentiments in a CNBC interview that aired Tuesday. He said he sees the “shape of the yield curve” in the bond market as a signal of where stocks are going from here with an “aggressive Federal Reserve over the next two years.”

5 issues to know earlier than the inventory market opens Wednesday, Jan. 12

Here are the top news, trends and analysis investors need to start their trading day:

1. Wall Street advanced after the two-day technical recovery

Traders on the NYSE floor, January 10, 2022.

Source: New York SE

US stock futures edged higher on Wednesday after another hot inflation report. the Nasdaq on Tuesday gathered for the second session as Tech stocks continued to rally. The index rose 1.4% as bond yields stabilised, taking some pressure off growth-oriented stocks which appeared to have found a foothold after a difficult start to the new year. the S&P 500 rose nearly 1%, breaking a five-session losing streak. the Dow Jones industry average rose 0.5%, ending a four-session downtrend. The S&P 500 and Dow on Tuesday closed nearly 1.8% and 1.5% off their record closes last week, respectively. The Nasdaq closed 5.6% off its record close in November.

2. Consumer prices rising fastest since 1982

those of the government December consumer price index on Wednesday showed a 7% yoy rise, in line with estimates and the hottest rise since 1982. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 5.5% yoy, slightly higher than expected. the 10-year Treasury yield On Wednesday dropped to below 1.73% after the data and after rising to over 1.8% this year earlier this week.

3. Fed Chair Powell says tighter monetary policy is needed to control inflation

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during his reappointment hearing before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, United States, January 11, 2022.

Graeme Jennings | Reuters

federal reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell, with a seemingly clear path to a second term at the helm of the central bank, explained On Tuesday, the US economy is healthy enough and needs tighter monetary policy to control inflation. That will likely mean raising interest rates this year, tapering monthly asset purchases and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. Powell made the comments during his confirmation hearing, where key senators indicated they will support him for a second term.

4. Omicron could be heading for a quick decline in the UK and US

A patient with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) lies intubated in his isolation room in the intensive care unit (ICU) at Western Reserve Hospital in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, the United States, January 4, 2022.

Shannon Stapleton | Reuters

Scientists see signals The fast-spreading Covid-Omicron variant may have peaked in the UK and could be ready to do the same in the US in South Africa. The influential model from the University of Washington expects the number of daily reported cases in the US to hit 1.2 million by Jan. 19 and then fall sharply. The latest seven-day average of daily new infections was 747,267, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.

5. Biden is sending more Covid tests to schools to keep them open

Students leave Darwin Elementary School in the Logan Square neighborhood of Chicago on Monday, January 3, 2022, the first day of school after the winter break for the Chicago Public Schools.

Brian Cassella | Tribune News Service | Getty Images

The White House increases Federal support for schools’ Covid tests to keep them open as Omicron variant rages across US month The aim is to alleviate supply bottlenecks and promote safety in schools. That’s on top of more than $10 billion spent on school-based testing allowed under the Covid Relief Act.

— The Associated Press contributed to this report. Follow all market action like a pro CNBC Pro. Get the latest on the pandemic with you CNBC’s coronavirus coverage.

5 issues to know earlier than the inventory market opens Thursday, Jan. 6

Here are the key news, trends, and analysis investors need to start their trading day:

1. Wall Street looks stable after Wednesday’s big Fed-driven sell-off

Trader on NYSE January 3, 2022.

Source: NYSE

Dow futures climbed higher but Nasdaq futures moved lower Thursday, the day after a major Federal Reserve-sponsored sell-off, the first regular decline of the year on Wall Street. The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting show that central bankers are preparing to end economic aid sooner than previously expected.

2. The Fed is setting wheels in motion to begin tearing down its massive balance sheet

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell awaits the start of a hearing before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Development on Capitol Hill November 30, 2021 in Washington, DC.

Alex Wong | Getty Images

The Fed began plans to cut the holdings of bonds on its balance sheet at its December meeting, with members saying such a cut would likely begin sometime after the central bank hiked interest rates. That is after minutes from the meeting published on Wednesday.

  • The Fed is currently expected to start rate hikes in March, which would mean a balance sheet cut could begin before summer.
  • After the December meeting, the Fed announced plans to more aggressively reduce its bond purchases.
  • Central bankers will hold their first meeting of the new year on January 26-27. With Covid cases increasing due to the Omicron variant, traders will be curious to see if the Fed adjusts their plans.

3. Investors receive unemployment claims data the day before the December employment report

A job seeker leaves the airport-related employment fair at Logan International Airport in Boston, Massachusetts, the United States, December 7, 2021.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

Central bankers and investors will get another reading on labor market health on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The government’s weekly look at unemployment claims for the week ending January 1 is expected to show a total of 195,000 first-time registrations. That would roughly correspond to the level of the previous week, which was close to the lowest level since 1969.

4. Walgreens Stocks Up In Earnings; Bed Bath & Beyond shares hit the jackpot

Walgreens in Oakland, California.

Yalonda M. James | San Francisco Chronicle | Hearst Newspapers via Getty Images

Dow share Walgreens Boots Alliance rose 3% in the premarket after the pharmacy chain reported better-than-expected results and revenue for the first quarter of the fiscal year on Thursday morning. Walgreens also raised its annual forecast as customers came into its stores for Covid vaccines and tests. The company’s shares closed at $ 54 on Wednesday, up nearly 1%. The stock was up 30% over the past 12 months as of Wednesday’s close, equating to a market value of more than $ 46.7 billion.

Customers shop in a Bed Bath & Beyond store

Courtesy: Bed Bath & Beyond

Bed bath in addition The stock lost nearly 2% early on the market after the household goods retailer missed analysts’ expectations for its third fiscal quarter on Thursday morning. Bed Bath & Beyond reported a loss when analysts expected a break even. Sales were below estimates. The company’s CEO said an inventory shortage due to supply chain bottlenecks cost Bed Bath & Beyond about $ 100 million.

5. CDC supports Pfizer booster shots for children ages 12-15 when the omicrones spike

The headquarters of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia.

Tami Chapel | Reuters

Children between the ages of 12 and 15 are now eligible Pfizer and BioNTech‘s Covid booster vaccinations that give them an extra dose of protection when they return to school amid an unprecedented spike in infections in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday recommended Booster for younger teenagers at least five months after the second dose. Hospital stays for children infected with Covid are increasing in the US as Omicron triggers a wave of infections among the general population. According to the American Academy of Pediatrics, at least 7.8 million children have become infected with Covid since the pandemic began. More than 1,000 children have died from the virus, according to CDC data.

– Follow the entire market like a pro CNBC Pro. Find out about the pandemic with CNBC’s coronavirus coverage.

5 issues to know earlier than the inventory market opens Thursday, Dec. 23

Here are the key news, trends, and analysis investors need to start their trading day:

1. Stock futures indicate the third consecutive profit day

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to start trading on Monday after the sharp decline in global stocks on Friday due to fears of the new omicron Covid variant on December 20, 2021 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

US stock futures on Thursday for a third session in a row with wins in a continuation of Recreation on Wall Street from a previous three-session dry spell due to concerns about the Covid-Omicron variant. the Dow Jones industry average rose 261 points, or 0.7%, on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 1% and 1.2% respectively. To add to the positive mood, the Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency permit for Pfizer‘s Covid pill, the first antiviral drug against the virus for home use.

2. Data shows an improving economy with uncomfortable inflation

A sign stands in front of a job fair for employees who are not vaccinated against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Temecula, California, the United States, December 4, 2021.

Denis Poroy | Reuters

Trading is expected to remain relatively thin as the US stock market closes for Christmas Eve on Friday. However, there is a full list of economic data on Thursday starting at 8:30 a.m. ET with numbers on jobs, inflation, spending, and durable goods orders. The numbers showed a strong economy with improving labor and spending trends, but inflation at uncomfortable levels. At 10 a.m. ET, November New Home Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, last December, are released.

3. Omicron is milder than other variants, studies show

A woman is given a Covid-19 test while driving through the Covid-19 testing center while hundreds of cars and pedestrians line up to watch Omicron soar across the country ahead of the Christmas holidays on the 22nd.

Tayfun Coskun | Agency Anadolu | Getty Images

The Omicron variant is less likely hospitalization and appears to be milder than previous strains of the virus, according to initial data released by research teams this week. On Tuesday, a new study from South Africa showed that people infected with Omicron were 80% less likely to be hospitalized than those infected with other strains. On Wednesday the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention said this omicron accounted for 90% of cases in some parts of the country. The CDC said the variant made up more than 73% of cases in the US on Saturday.

4. Covid modeling suggests a massive increase in the cases ahead

U.S. Army intensive care nurse Captain Edward Rauch Jr. (L) switches a Covid-19 patient to a ventilator on December 17, 2021 at Beaumont Hospital in Dearborn, Michigan.

Jeff Kowalsky | AFP | Getty Images

Hospitals across the country prepare for another wave of Covid that could rival the early days of the pandemic as the highly mutated and contagious omicron variant rages. The director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation USA Today said This new modeling shows that there could be about 140 million new cases in the US from January to March. The peak of new infections every day is expected to reach around 2.8 million by the end of next month, according to IHME, with less than 15% expected to be recorded by tests. The US has one a total of 51.5 million reported Covid cases since the virus hit America. The number of reported cases passed the 300,000 mark in early January this year.

5. Elon Musk now says “almost done” selling Tesla stock

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla.

Christophe Gateau / Picture Alliance via Getty Images

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday he is “almost finished” on his stock sales after selling over $ 15 billion for more than a month. The billionaire had made confusing statements as to whether or not he could cope with his stated goal of selling 10% of his Tesla shares. “I sold enough stock to get about 10% plus the option exercise, and I’ve tried to be extremely literal here,” he said in an interview published Tuesday with the conservative satirical website Babylon Bee. But on Wednesday he suggested he might not be finished. “This assumes the completion of the 10b sale,” he tweeted, referring to his pre-arranged sales plan regarding his options.

– Reuters contributed to this report. Follow the entire market like a pro CNBC Pro. Find out about the pandemic with CNBC’s coronavirus coverage.

– Thursday’s “5 Things” report will be the last of the year. It will return after the holidays on Monday 3rd January.

Market historical past says omicron volatility is not a cause to promote

As stock market investors have learned over the past week, it’s tricky to time the next move in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after a big selloff. Buyers stepped in Monday after the 900-point Nov. 26 dive, but there were signs of weakness. Stocks tanked Tuesday, soared back Wednesday before whipsawing into the close, and then had a huge day on Thursday before ending the week’s trading with another loss for the Dow.

“Always tricky,” says Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer and chief market strategist at Truist.

Looking to market history can help.

Some are betting on the Santa Claus rally for a big December, even as clarity on the omicron variant threat remains lacking and cases spread, including in the U.S. And even after a week in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised the market — with timing that was “curious,” according to Mohamed El-Erian — saying the Fed’s taper may be accelerated and inflation should no longer be described as “transitory.”

Traders work in the S&P 500 options pit at Cboe Global Markets Inc. in Chicago, Illinois.

Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Lerner is looking to market history, and he sees an environment in which the patient investors will be ahead, if not in December, a year from now.

“We want at least a 12-month trend, because even if your entry point is not exactly right, you have greater chances of success in that timeframe,” he said. 

The “Black Friday” Nov. 26 spike in the VIX volatility index of 54% was among the five biggest single-day volatility moves in the past three decades. Since 1990, there have been 19 trading sessions during which the VIX spiked by 40% or more. In 18 of those 19 instances, or 95% of the time, the S&P 500 Index was higher one-year later, and the gains were large — an average of 20%.

With the U.S. market still up more than 20% this year even after the recent volatility, another 20% might be aspirational. Lerner noted that before the recent market whipsaw, stocks had gained 9% since early October, and that is a negative as far as having confidence the market will move up substantially in the short-term. That implies the immediate future is “vulnerable” to more moves down.

But the more important data point is the longer-term trend in the VIX history: there isn’t any instance across the 19 biggest VIX spikes of the past three decades after which stocks weren’t positive a majority of the time one month, three months, six months, and one year later. One month later, stocks were only up an average of 1%, but were positive 70% of the time, and the numbers get better with time.

Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards

The caveat: Covid is a type of risk that the markets have not seen often over the past three decades, and two of the biggest VIX spikes came as Covid first hit the U.S. in February 2020. After both, the one-month period for stocks was brutal. That implies a market that remains on edge for now, and that should not come as a surprise — especially after the past week of trading. But the only of the 19 instances in which stocks were still down a year later was at the onset of the financial crisis. That data point gives Lerner more confidence in remaining bullish.

Volatility will remain the headline before the dominant trend returns, but that trend, he says, will be an economy that continues to expand and support further stock gains.

“In the last decade, we’ve had these V-shaped recoveries. They have been more normal,” he said. “Go back to the pandemic low, when you had a sharp move down and you get a kick back rally and a battle between greed and fear ensues. But in general, over the last 5 to 10 years, we’ve seen more of these come-down and go-back-up markets, as if nothing happened,” he added.

The last time was the end of September when the financial issues at Chinese property giant Evergrande sent the global equity markets into a tailspin.

Fear of missing out in a Covid market

The base case, Lerner says, is more of a tug-of-war until more of the news filters out and the market is able to get a better gauge on this new variant. This doesn’t change his view that investors are more likely to be rewarded by sitting tight rather than sitting out the market. In a “fear of missing out” era, that’s a lesson many investors learned from Spring 2020, the fastest bull market in history based on S&P 500 price gains.

“For people who missed out that time, it is a reminder about becoming too negative too fast,” Lerner said. “Even if you had had all the news on the pandemic, you would have been better staying in the market. By the time we have the all clear the market has moved,” he said.

The stock market was at a record shortly before Nov. 26, and when markets come off new highs, history says investors should be prepared for more downside over the next one to three months. A pandemic may heighten that volatility since the science is a type of uncertainty the market isn’t accustomed to analyzing. But the market does now have the 2020 Covid playbook to learn from.

“In February 2020, it was all new,” Lerner said. “We didn’t know how businesses would adapt, and now there is playbook. We saw they become more digital. There will be winners and losers, no matter what, but companies and consumers have adapted and will again.”

The Federal Reserve is on record as saying one of the lessons of the Covid era is that the economy has gotten better at adapting to pandemic during each successive wave. When Fed Chair Powell outlined a more hawkish position during Senate testimony this week, some market pundits pointed to the inflationary risks from an economy that is too hot as being the larger concern than a new Covid variant.

Like many market experts, Lerner says on the margins inflation may become even worse because of an exacerbation of the existing supply chain issues, which were starting to show signs of easing and now with a new variant unknown could go back up again on new factory shutdowns and delays in transportation.

“It is a risk to the market,” he said, and another reason volatility may remain elevated in the near-term.

Fed Chair Powell said this week that the omicron variant “complicates” the inflation picture.

But another difference between now and Spring 2020: the economy is not in a recession, which it quickly entered during lockdowns and stay-at-home orders during the initial Covid wave. “Now we know, even with this variant, it may slow activity down, but I still think recession risk is low. That’s a key difference from February and March 2020 when a recession happened so quickly,” Lerner said.

Apple, mega-cap tech stocks and the S&P 500

For investors who maintain broad exposure to the U.S. stock market through S&P 500 funds, composition of the U.S. stock market is a reason for riding out the current period of volatility. While Apple, the market’s largest company, took a dip on Thursday after a report its holiday sales of iPhones might disappoint, earlier in the week Apple shares, and tech more broadly, were a bright spot for the market in its rebound attempts. Apple, in particular, had the characteristics of a “flight to safety” trade. And with Apple and its mega-cap tech peers representing close to one-quarter of the S&P 500, the omicron overhang on stocks may do more damage below the surface of the index than at the surface gain or loss level.

“Especially in the U.S. market, composition does matter,” Lerner said.

Reflation trades may ultimately benefit if omicron doesn’t turn out to be as bad as feared and the economic expansion remains on track, but “right now, the strongest sector is tech and that’s the most important sector for those investing at the index level,” he said. “If the big mega-cap tech stocks hold up, you may see the headline index hold up better and more bifurcation below the surface. The knee jerk is investors will rotate to companies that can still create a lot of cash flow and have bigger balance sheets, so if there is a slowdown, they have enough to get through. They’ve become more defensive in some ways,” he added.

This view also makes Lerner in favor of continuing a tilt to U.S. equities versus peer markets around the globe, even as international and emerging markets trade at significant discounts to U.S. stocks. He noted that international equity prices are making fresh lows relative to the U.S., and in the case of the EAFE index versus the S&P 500, a relative price that is at the lowest level in history.

The sector composition of the S&P 500 and outsize role of mega-cap is a major reason for that versus the European market and the EAFE universe, in which financial and industrials are the top two sectors. Lerner stressed that this doesn’t mean gains won’t eventually come to those who enter early into discounted overseas equities trades. In fact, he has told clients that part of sticking with a U.S. equities tilt and technology for now likely means missing the onset of an investor rotation that is inevitably going to favor overseas markets as earnings power improves, but it’s a price he is willing to pay.

“Valuations are cheap overseas but that hasn’t been a catalyst,” he said. “We will miss the turn, but we are willing to wait for stability and earning trends, and that has served us well in being overweight U.S. … If there is a sustainable move, there should be sustainable upside,” he added. “You don’t need to be a hero trying to buy those markets.”

Short-term market headwinds, longer-term stock catalysts

Equity market strategists remain cautious on any sustainable bounce in the U.S., too, based on this past week’s action. Monday’s big really featured an advance/decline breakdown of 1,834 winning stocks versus 1,502 losing ones — “not a resounding up day.” Lerner said. But Thursday’s big bounce was more encouraging. Advances: 2,525. Declines: 868. “You want to see an advance-decline that is three-to-one,” Lerner said, and the market delivered that on Thursday — though that confidence didn’t last.

The Russell 2,000, a broader look at the U.S. market and domestic economy than the large-cap S&P, broke it’s four-day losing streak on Thursday, but by Friday’s close was 12% of its 5-week high. Lerner’s says the action in the small-cap Russell 2000 is an example of the “nice kickback but more mixed below the surface” market action investors will need to keep an eye on, and not let themselves be fooled by any “all clear” signal amid the stock nibbling and, most importantly, continued uncertainty over the course of the omicron variant.

The market had its best day since March 2021 on Thursday, but strategists remain wary. Tom Lee’s Fundstrat Global Advisors, which called for “aggressive buying” early in the week, said after both the Monday and Thursday rallies that the market wasn’t sending an all-clear signal.

According to Bank of America and FactSet Research Systems, headed into Friday’s trading action only 32 S&P 500 stocks were off their highs less than the S&P 500 Index.

“Thursday’s rally, similar to Wednesday’s bounce, failed to show sufficient strength to think a low is in,” Fundstrat Global Advisors wrote to clients on Thursday night. “This rally could still weaken further into next week. … Given the extreme drop off in breadth in recent weeks, a monumental effort is necessary along with broad-based participation to have confidence.”

On Friday, the S&P 500 barely avoided its sixth-consecutive trading session with a move of 1% or more, declining by 0.8%.

Lerner pointed out in a note to clients last Thursday that the percentage of retail investors with a bullish view has dropped to just 27% versus 48% a few weeks ago, according to the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), while the percentage of bearish investors jumped to the highest level in more than a year. He sees investor patience as being as important as confidence. Corporations and consumers have adapted to Covid, pent-up demand remains, and the economy remains on solid footing, all which leads him to that bottom-line takeaway that the primary market trend is higher, but it will likely continue to be a rocky near-term road.

On Friday, the World Health Organization said the omicron variant had spread to 38 countries and early data suggested it was more contagious than the Delta variant. The tech sector led losses on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite down 1.9%, and below the surface of the mega-cap tech leaders, many price-to-earnings ratios in the software sector remain vulnerable to revaluation even amid bets on the return to a more virtual, stay-at-home world, with the selling in DocuSign after its weak outlook an example.

While the S&P 500 is below its peak from a month ago; the ARK Innovation ETF that made fund manager Cathie Wood a star in recent years and during the pandemic: now down 40% from its February high and its largest pullback since the onset of the pandemic. The iShares Tech-Software ETF, which includes DocuSign, was below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May on Friday, and more than 14% below its intraday all-time high from November.

The one factor investors should not let set their investment course is fear. Fear in the market right now is being driven by a factor that is real, and to get to the other side of that fear can takes weeks, if not months. But fear can also rotate from a market headwind to market tailwind, and that is what the history of big spikes in the VIX index shows. “The same fear becomes the catalyst,” Lerner said.

After the “Black Friday” selloff, Lee said the lack of an inversion in the VIX, when the nearer-term risk is being priced higher than the outer risk, was a positive sign. But by this past Friday, the VIX curve had inverted, which is a sign of portfolio stress. While that “can occur near the climax of a selloff, as fear peaks,” the VIX will have to un-invert again for more confidence.

“We have to say with humility what we know and don’t know,” Lerner said, but he added that if the catalyst for the S&P being down is renewed Covid fears, and we find out these concerns are overblow and won’t disrupt the economic trajectory and won’t effect corporate profits, the headlines that had people braced for negative news become a positive catalyst for the market because expectations were reset lower.

“There are times like 2007 when investors weren’t fearful enough,” he said. “But our baseline view is that we’re not going into a recession, this doesn’t change the economic expansion materially.”

Friday’s monthly jobs report was below expectations in number of jobs added by the U.S. economy in November, but it was a mixed report, with the unemployment rate falling and labor participation rising, both encouraging signs for the economic outlook.

A “garden-variety” correction in stocks, was how S&P 500 technician Ed Yardeni described it early last week.

By Friday’s close, the Nasdaq was down more than 6% from its 52-week high; the off Dow over 5%; and the S&P less than 5% from its annual high.

5% to 10% corrections are the admission price to the market,” Lerner often says. “Investors are better served by focusing on the longer term trend.”

5 issues to know earlier than the inventory market opens Monday, Nov. 8

Here are the top news, trends, and analysis investors need to start their trading day:

1. Dow futures higher after more Wall Street records on Friday

Traders on the NYSE floor

Source: NYSE

the Dow is set so that the week starts where it left off. The 30-stock average closed on another record Friday and that too S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, according to a better-than-expected job report in October. All three benchmarks posted solid gains in the first week of November. Shares in pre-market trading got a boost out of the house late Friday Passing over $ 1 trillion in infrastructure bill, Sending the law to the president Joe Biden for his signature. House Democrats planned on Friday to pass both the infrastructure bill and the $ 1.75 trillion social safety net and party’s climate package. A handful of centrists’ request for the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of the budgetary effects of the larger bill delayed its approval.

2. Ether hits a record as Bitcoin inching towards its all-time high

In 2021, Bitcoin and Ether saw huge rallies. In April 2021, the cryptocurrency market topped $ 2 trillion for the first time.

Jaap Arriens | NurPhoto | Getty Images

ether, the second largest digital coin in the world, rose more than 4% in 24 hours on Monday to hit a new all-time high of over $ 4,700. Bitcoin, the largest crypto, climbed 5% to $ 66,250, Step back towards its record high over $ 66,900, discontinued in late October. The reason for the move was not clear. Cryptocurrencies are known for their volatile fluctuations in price, with movements of up to 20% up or down being relatively common. Ethereum, the blockchain that Ether runs on, is undergoing a major upgrade that investors hope will make the network faster and greener.

3. Tesla slips 5% after Musk proposes selling 10% of its stock

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, stands in the foundry of the Tesla Gigafactory during a press event.

Patrick Pleul | Image Alliance | Getty Images

Shares in Tesla – more than 70% in the year to date and almost 180% in the last 12 months – fell 5% in the premarket on Monday. Tesla’s market value would still be well over $ 1 trillion if its stock opened roughly where it is in the pre-IPO. In one Twitter Poll Saturday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk proposed selling 10% of its stake in the electric car maker.

More than 3.5 million people answered and almost 58% of them voted “yes”. Musk said he would “stick to the results of this poll no matter which way it goes”. However, Faced with a $ 15 billion tax bill In the coming months on stock options, a Musk sale of Tesla stock is likely this year regardless of Twitter’s vote.

4. Regeneron’s Covid antibody therapy shows long-term protection

Regeneron Pharma called Monday a single dose of his antibody cocktail In a late-stage study, the risk of developing Covid was reduced by 81.6% in the two to eight months after administration. During the eight-month evaluation period, there were no Covid hospital admissions in the drug group and six in the placebo group. Regeneron’s shares rose around 2% in pre-trading.

5. Court of Appeal freezes Biden mandate; USA lift travel restrictions

General surgeon Vivek Murthy told ABCs “This Week” On Sunday, Biden’s government stands ready to defend its “reasonable and necessary” Covid vaccine and testing requirements for private companies. A federal appeals court on Saturday locked temporarily the upcoming mandate. The White House has until Monday evening to respond.

The USA Restrictions lifted Monday to travel from a long list of countries including Mexico, Canada and most of Europe. Travelers must provide proof of vaccination and a negative Covid test. The rules allow tourists to go on long-delayed trips and family members to reconnect with loved ones after being separated for more than a year and a half due to the pandemic.

– Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report. Follow the entire market like a pro CNBC Pro. Find out about the pandemic with CNBC’s coronavirus coverage.

Robust earnings might assist market overcome a traditionally robust interval

CNBCs Jim Cramer on Friday looked at the major market events of the next week after S&P 500 notched seventh consecutive day of winnings close with a record high of 4,697.53.

“We have to see if this rosy trend holds up until next week, a time that historically tends to produce some ugly sell-offs. … But if earnings stay strong, well, I think the stock market can stay strong. too, ”said Cramer.

Here’s what the “Bad money” Host will keep his eyes. All sales and earnings per share estimates are from FactSet.

Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards

Jim Cramer’s schedule for November 8th trading week.

Crazy money with Jim Cramer

Monday: earnings from PayPal and AMC Entertainment; Events from AMD and Nvidia


  • Q3 result after the bell; Conference call at 5 p.m. ET Monday
  • Projected earnings per share: $ 1.07
  • Expected sales: $ 6.23 billion

Cramer said owning PayPal for his charitable trust has so far been “a disaster” as the stock was recently crushed. “Dan Schulman, the CEO, has already warned us that this was going to be a tough quarter due to PayPal’s final split from eBay, but it’s already down more than 80 points, which seems excessive to me,” said Cramer.

AMC entertainment

  • Q3 results after close of trading; Conference call at 5 p.m. ET Monday
  • Projected earnings per share: loss of 53 cents
  • Expected revenue: $ 708 million

It’s hard to rate AMC now that it’s a meme stock with a very passionate group of retail investors who own it, Cramer said. “I bet CEO Adam Aron will do a great job on the call and individual investors will buy more so the stock will hold out because he knows how to give his shareholder base what it wants,” he said.


  • The data center accelerated premier on Monday at 11 a.m. ET

Cramer said he expected AMD CEO Lisa Su to tell a great story at Monday’s event. “I think AMD is well on its way to dwarfing Intel in market cap. … How the mighty have fallen,” he said.


  • The semiconductor company’s annual GPU technology conference Monday through Thursday

“Be prepared to be blinded,” said Cramer.

Tuesday: Wynn Resorts, Upstart Holdings, Coinbase and DoorDash

Wynn Resorts

  • Q3 results after the bell; Conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET Tuesday
  • Projected earnings per share: loss of $ 1.36
  • Expected revenue: $ 943 million

Cramer said he has been into Wynn Resorts for the long term and believes that “stock” will soar once business picks up in the Macau gaming hub. “Until then, pain,” he said.

Upstart stocks

  • Q3 results after close of trading; Conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET Tuesday
  • Projected earnings per share: 33 cents
  • Expected revenue: $ 214.9 million

The fintech company uses artificial intelligence to modernize the lending process.

Coin base

  • Q3 results after the bell; Conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET Tuesday
  • Projected earnings per share: $ 1.73
  • Expected sales: $ 1.57 billion

“The action in cryptocurrency has been pretty exciting lately, that should bring Coinbase higher even though it’s up. That means they have to let go of arrogance. You have to switch to chill mode, ”said Cramer.

by Dash

  • Q3 results after close of trading; Conference call at 5 p.m. ET Tuesday
  • Projected earnings per share: loss of 10 cents
  • Expected sales: $ 9.96 billion

The strength of Uber’s grocery delivery business in the third quarter could be a harbinger of strong results for DoorDash, Cramer said, suggesting the company “might blow the doors away.”

Wednesday: Wendy’s, Dutch Bros, Walt Disney Co. and Mastercard meeting


  • Q3 results before the bell; Conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday
  • Projected earnings per share: 18 cents
  • Expected revenue: $ 471 million

Cramer said he hopes Wendy’s, which he named his favorite fast food chain, can report numbers as good as McDonald’s latest results.

Dutch brothers

  • Q3 results after close of trading; Conference call at 5 p.m. ET Wednesday
  • Projected earnings per share: 6 cents
  • Expected revenue: $ 125.2 million

The Oregon-based chain has proven to be one of the hottest IPOs of the yearsaid Cramer. “This is a great regional to national growth story,” he said, but said he still had concerns about the stock’s valuation.

Walt disney co.

  • Q4 results; Conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET Wednesday
  • Projected earnings per share: 52 cents
  • Expected sales: $ 18.8 billion

Cramer said Disney’s report might be “rough”. He noted that some of his theme parks were underutilized and the movie list was “good, not great”. Meanwhile, its flagship streaming service Disney + also appears to be “slowing down,” he said.


  • The investor meeting begins Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET

While the company’s shares have collapsed recently, it’s important for Cramer to remember that Mastercard has benefited from consumer spending, and most importantly now, from the resumption of cross-border travel.

Thursday: tapestry and yeti


  • Q1 2022 results before the bell; Conference call at 8 a.m. ET Thursday
  • Projected earnings per share: 70 cents
  • Expected sales: $ 1.44 billion

Cramer said any positive news from Coach and Kate Spade’s parent company should help push the stock to a new 52-week high of over $ 49.66 per share. The stock closed at $ 42.51 on Friday.


  • Q3 result before the opening; Conference call at 8 a.m. ET Thursday
  • Projected earnings per share: 60 cents
  • Expected revenue: $ 358 million

Cramer said he believes the company, known for its insulated mugs and coolers, is more than just a winner from the pandemic.

Friday: AstraZeneca and Warby Parker


  • Q3 result before the bell; Conference call at 7:45 a.m. ET Friday
  • Projected earnings per share: £ 92.54
  • Expected turnover: £ 7.04 billion

Of the companies that have developed Covid vaccines, Cramer believes there are “better fish to fry” than AstraZeneca.

Warby Parker

  • Q3 results before the Open; Conference call at 8 a.m. ET Friday
  • CNBC
  • Expected revenue: $ 133.1 million

Cramer said he was keen to learn more about Warby Parker in the eyewear maker’s first quarter results as a public company.

CORRECTION: This article has been updated to correct an incorrect comment that Wells Fargo recently discontinued fintech company Upstart. It has not.

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Market Tendencies: Flathead Dwelling Gross sales by Metropolis and Fashion

Which single-family house styles sell the most, how quickly from listing to contract (median), for how much per square meter (median)? See diagram (I filtered out some columns like A-Frame, Cabin and others – as they were full of outliers). Let’s compare September 30th with the previous October 1st for 2021, 2020 and 2019. Ranch and 1.5-2 story styles sell in the largest quantities. Single-story and round timber often sell best per square meter.

© Copyright 2021 by Richard Garrett Dews. All rights reserved. Research is based in part on information from Montana Regional MLS, LLC

Richard Dews is CEO of Glacier Flathead Real Estate, a Flathead-based real estate software and services company.

5 issues to know earlier than the inventory market opens Monday, Oct. 4

Here are the key news, trends, and analysis investors need to start their trading day:

1. Dow futures fell with a strong rally after the start of October

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, USA on September 29, 2021.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

US stock futures fell modestly on Monday after ending a tough week with a strong rally on the first day of October. the Dow Jones industry average led up on Friday with a plus of 482 points or 1.4%. The S&P 500 was up 1.2%. The Nasdaq’s profit of 0.8% broke a dry spell of five sessions. The tech-heavy index was more than 5.2% off its last record high on September 7th. The S&P 500 was nearly 4% off its record high of September 2nd. The Dow was more than 3.6% off its August 16 record high.

The month of October has a reputation for volatilitybut the fourth quarter was mostly a positive time for the market. Many Wall Street strategists expect stocks to beat their recent highs after a rocky period in October. The S&P 500 averaged oversized gains of 3.9% in the fourth quarter, up four out of five times since World War II, according to the CFRA. September was the worst month in 2021.

2. US sales agents vow to enforce phase one deal with China

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai testifies during a proposed 2022 budget hearing for the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office on Capitol Hill on April 28, 2021 in Washington, DC.

Sarah Silberner | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Washington needs to enforce the US-China Phase 1 trade deal, and it will raise broader political concerns about Beijing. after remarks to be delivered on Monday by US trade representative Katherine Tai. CNBC reported last week that the top trade advisor would announce that Beijing has failed to honor the Phase 1 deal reached under the administration of former President Donald Trump. Tai’s speech at 10 a.m. ET at the Washington think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, will outline the Biden government’s China trade strategy.

3. Evergrande, who is in trouble, wants to raise more money from the partial sale

China Evergrande Group’s headquarters in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China on February 9, 2021.

Shen Longquan | Visual China Group | Getty Images

Debt developer China Evergrande Group will sell part of its stake in its real estate services unit, the second asset sale in as many weeks while the Chinese real estate giant, struggling with liquidity, is trying to raise cash. Trading in shares of Evergrande and Evergrande Property Services was interrupted on Monday morning. In a filing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Evergrande said it had requested to stop trading prior to announcing a “big deal”. Last week, Evergrande announced it would sell a $ 1.5 billion stake in Shengjing Bank to a state-owned asset management company.

4. Whistleblower says Facebook is “much worse” than rivals

Olivier Douliery | AFP | Getty Images

Frances Haugen – a Facebook whistleblower who submitted internal documents to the Wall Street Journal and Congress detailing the company’s research – revealed her identity Before an interview, she was the CBS show “60 Minutes”, which aired Sunday night. The documents showed that Facebook executives were aware of the negative impact its platforms had on some young users.

According to her website, Haugen was a former product manager on Facebook’s civic disinformation team. Haugen previously worked as a product manager Pinterest, Howl and alphabet‘s Google, according to their LinkedIn profile. “I’ve seen a number of social networks and it was much worse on Facebook than anything I’ve seen before,” Haugen told 60 Minutes. Facebook shares, which were down 10% last month, fell nearly 1% in the premarket on Monday.

5. Tesla exceeds expectations with deliveries in the third quarter despite delays

The Tesla logo that can be seen in one of its showrooms. Tesla today announced its results for the first quarter of 2021.

Toby Scott | LightRakete | Getty Images

Shares in Tesla – by almost 10% to date – rose almost 3% in the pre-market after the company announced on Saturday that it had delivered 241,300 better-than-expected electric vehicles in the third quarter of 2021. The company produced 237,823 cars in the quarter. Most were Model 3 and Y, the more affordable mid-range offerings. The rest were the high-end models Model S and X. Tesla does not publish the delivery figures by model, nor does it disclose sales or production figures from China compared to the USA. It also thanked the customers for their patience.

– Follow the entire market like a pro CNBC Pro. Find out about the pandemic with CNBC’s coronavirus coverage.