State of Texas Is an Even-Cash Favourite to Win March Insanity

Jared Butler drives to the tire.

Jared Butler (# 12), preseason Big 12 Player of the Year, has led Baylor’s quest to win the 2020-21 regular season title. (Photo by Matthew Visinsky / Icon Sportswire)

  • With a new prop, you can bet on which state will be the winner of the 2021 NCAA tournament
  • The state of Texas is preferred because Baylor, Texas, Houston, and Texas Tech are all located in the state of Longhorn
  • Could there be any value for a state like Virginia?

There’s a new fun prop on the board for those who are into that March Madness opportunities. It focuses on which state will produce the big dance winner. If you look at the current odds, it is expected that the state of Texas will produce the winner. Texas currently has four schools in the top 18 of the Associated Press poll.

Is Texas the game here or is there value elsewhere?

March Madness-Winning State Odds

Status opportunities
Texas +100
Washington +275
Michigan +400
Florida +900
Pennsylvania +900
Ohio +1000
Iowa +1100
Virginia +1200
Illinois +1300
Wisconsin +1700
California +2000
Nebraska +2500
Connecticut +3000
North Carolina +3000
Oregon +3000
West Virginia +3000
Indiana +4000
South carolina +4000
Missouri +5000

Chances to win starting February 22nd at DraftKings.

Longhorns In Tow, Texas, leads the way with bears

The key to understanding these props is to cross-reference which schools are in each state. This way the odds makers come up with the odds if they take the regular futures and then find a number where you would win the bet if you had selected multiple teams. That way you can put a bunch of them in a small bundle.

In terms of Texas, we see them so high on the board because they currently have four teams in the top 18. These include Baylor # 2, Texas # 14, Houston # 12, and Texas Tech # 18, which means you get Baylor preferred to win it all, along with two other teams in the top eight ( Texas and Houston).

One concern here must be the strength of the schedule of the previous Texas teams. Neither of them have really had an all-too-difficult road – according to KenPom.com. Looking at the strength of the schedule, Texas has played the toughest schedule in the group and that is 36th place in the country. KenPom believes the Big Ten is a much stronger conference.

With the Texas option here, it looks like Baylor really is the only team that could be a serious contender. The other three teams will take a lot to go their way (probably too much). Houston has already lost three times to AAC teams, Texas is 3-4 in the last seven, and Texas Tech is 3-3 in the last six.

The better bet here could be to race against +310 with Baylor and not drag in the other teams. There is more risk but more reward if Baylor gets through. They look like the only team in this bundle that can do that.

March Madness Final Four Odds Tracker

Can Washington Deliver?

In terms of odds, Washington ranks second. The mindset here has to be roughly the same: why pool everyone when Gonzaga is the only team that can realistically win anything? But the quota makers aren’t really hiding that with Washington. The state has a price of +275 and Gonzaga alone has an equal chance.

None of the other non-Gonzaga teams are in the top 90 according to KenPom.com’s Adjusted Efficiency Rating. In other words, just bet on Gonzaga if you like her odds but don’t spend too much time on this prop as you are with of no value to the other teams in Washington state.

Worth with Virginia

One of the few areas where this prop seems to have some value is in the state of Virginia. It’s further down the board at +1200 and there’s no such thing as a “top dog” per se, but if you bet on Virginia you’re going to get two solid teams that could run a run in the NCAA tournament.

UVA started off the season as one of the favorites and, despite falling lately, still has a good pedigree. According to KenPom.com’s Adjusted Efficiency Rating, they are ninth in the country. Virginia Tech is now 14-4 in the season and third in the ACC. Virginia Tech is a perfect 4-0 against teams in the top 25, so that’s encouraging.

In total, these are two teams listed in the AP poll and in the top 35 of the KenPom.com rankings. Betting them individually you may feel like you are throwing darts, but when you are bundled at +1200 you will get a few outs in case one disappoints. With the other props, it makes sense to only bet directly on Baylor or Gonzaga. Here it feels like Virginia has some worth.

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Sports journalist

Dave has worked in mainstream media and sports betting for over 15 years. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years and is currently a senior writer at AskMen. He has interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high profile sports stars including Shaquille O’Neal and Floyd Mayweather.

entertainment NFL NBA MLB NHL golf tennis MMA

Dave has worked in mainstream media and sports betting for over 15 years. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years and is currently a senior writer at AskMen. He has interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high profile sports stars including Shaquille O’Neal and Floyd Mayweather.