In Brazil election run-up, US-style Huge Lie not dominated out

Former left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is the favorite in the Brazilian election in a year, but surprises cannot be ruled out – not even a dramatic US-style final on charges of a rigged result.

The incumbent right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, whose approval rating has plummeted in recent months, would, according to a recent survey by the Instituto Datafolha. received 26 percent of the vote in the first ballot on October 2, 2022, compared with 44 percent for Lula.

What factors will play a role in the next presidential election in the country with the largest economy in Latin America?

– Bolsonaro, down and out? –

The 66-year-old Bolsonaro has been heavily criticized for his performance, largely due to the Covid pandemic that has claimed nearly 600,000 lives in Brazil and the economic decline that comes with double-digit inflation that is undermining people’s purchasing power.

His approval rating has dropped to 22 percent, the lowest since he took office in 2019. He also stares down a number of impeachment motions and multiple judicial investigations, including for allegedly looking the other way in a vaccine-sourcing corruption scandal.

But this former army captain, darling of Brazil’s most conservative sectors like agribusiness, isn’t done yet, says Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

“His time to reverse this negative outlook is getting shorter and shorter,” said Stuenkel. But “whoever is in power has a number of strategic advantages, most notably the ability to increase government spending.”

– Lula lies deep –

Although he has not officially announced his candidacy, 75-year-old Lula has been the favorite since courts dropped his convictions for corruption and money laundering.

But the former president, who could bring the Labor Party back to power after his two terms in office (2003-2010) and that of Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), is holding back.

The story goes on

“Lula is aware that he cannot expose himself to a lot because he would be severely attacked,” said political scientist Andre Cesar of the consultancy Hold.

“Antipetismo is a strong party,” he said, using a term to refer to the strong resentment of the Labor Party and covering a number of key conservative sectors including business.

Stuenkel said Lula was preparing a conciliatory strategy similar to that of US President Joe Biden, “who has tried to present himself as a centrist who brings together a diversity of Democrats and is not just the leader of the left” against Donald Trump in the 2020 election campaign .

– Realistic third option? –

At the same time, several smaller candidates, such as the governor of Sao Paulo, Joao Doria, are trying to lead a so-called “third way” that brings together the opponents of Lula and Bolsonaro. However, a street rally on September 12th that played up this idea was nonsense.

“The ‘none of them’ occupy a huge ideological space that runs from left to right,” said Stuenkel, so “it’s not realistic” to expect them to agree on a candidate.

But Cesar, the agent, said a third candidate could emerge if Bolsonaro’s unpopularity or legal issues put him out of the running, a prospect that currently seems unlikely.

And neither Bolsonaro nor Lula want a third candidate. Lula, a former union leader, allows the president to focus on the Brazilian left, which he associates with corruption and communism, as the country’s enemy.

It is safer for Lula to target Bolsonaro and its demise than to face a small candidate supported by pro-Bolsonaro voters and people who hate the Labor Party, said Michael Freitas of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

– Coup? Trump-style ending? –

In his struggles with the courts, Bolsonaro went so far as to suggest the possibility of a coup. And on September 7th he called protest marches during which his most ardent supporters openly chanted against democracy.

Despite ruling out a coup, many analysts fear that if Bolsonaro loses the presidential election, he will reject the election result.

“Bolsonaro is a politician who often imitates Trump,” said Freitas, recalling that the Brazilian head of state had already warned of electoral fraud by questioning the reliability of electronic voting, which has been used in the country since 1996, without any evidence posed.

Stuenkel said Bolsonaro could try to encourage violence, as Trump did before the U.S. Capitol uprising on Jan.

“The big difference is that the army and police are much less committed to democracy in Brazil,” said Stuenkel.

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Brazil fears third Covid wave as Bolsonaro faces parliamentary inquiry

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is undergoing a congressional investigation into the mismanagement of the pandemic.

Andressa Anholete | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Health experts fear the Brazilian Covid-19 disaster could get worse in the coming months, while a parliamentary investigation into the government’s response to the pandemic is likely to increase political pressure on President Jair Bolsonaro.

South America’s largest country, previously known for its leadership skills in health crises, has grown into an international pariah amid the coronavirus pandemic. Brazil has had the highest number of coronavirus-related deaths in the world outside of the United States, is, and is, behind in terms of vaccinations still without an effective and coordinated public health response to the outbreak.

An official investigation, approved by the Brazilian Supreme Court, opened late last month to look into the government’s handling of the pandemic, which killed more than 428,000 people. The investigation could pave the way for Bolsonaro’s impeachment, though analysts say political opponents of the right-wing leader may prefer to contest the president in the October 2022 election.

Bolsonaro allegedly said he was “not worried“About the investigation. A Brazilian government spokesman did not respond to a request for comment when contacted by CNBC.

Bolsonaro has repeatedly spoken out against public health measures, which have become a political battleground in Brazil, and continues to oppose any lockdown measures to contain the spread of the virus.

“The current unrestrained epidemic will not be overcome without a dramatic change in direction,” said Dr. Antonio Flores, Infectious Disease Specialist and Covid Medical Advisor at the Medecins Sans Frontieres aid group in Brazil.

He said that if life goes on normally, “with such a high daily incidence, all you can expect is a new wave of cases, an additional thousands of deaths and more pressure on the already stretched health system.”

A gravedigger walks among the graves of COVID-19 victims at the Nossa Senhora Aparecida cemetery in Manaus, Amazonas state, Brazil, on April 29, 2021.

MICHAEL DANTAS | AFP | Getty Images

His comments echo warnings from other health experts that Brazil could soon see a third wave of Covid infections in the coming weeks. It is feared that the country’s weak vaccination efforts will not be enough to prevent a new surge in the winter months of June through September with indoor gatherings and activities particularly risky.

Flores told CNBC that all available public health measures should be stepped up “as soon as possible” and that the country’s vaccination campaign needs to be accelerated. He added the need to put in place an effective testing and traceability system, as well as coherent guidelines on public health restrictions.

“A crucial element in next year’s elections”

By May 12, around 15% of Brazil’s 211 million residents had received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine Statistics compiled of our world in data. Chile has now vaccinated almost 46% of its population with at least one dose of a Covid vaccine. This reflects one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

Brazil’s lower vaccination rate means millions of people across the country and beyond its borders are at risk from more than 90 variants of the coronavirus currently circulating in the country. in addition to any new mutations that may appear.

Brazil’s Covid vaccination campaign is in stark contrast to its response to the H1N1 swine flu pandemic in 2009, when 92 million people were vaccinated against the virus in just three months. The main difference this time around, analysts say, is Bolsonaro’s refusal to take a science-led approach to addressing the health crisis.

This is a very dangerous government, but since it was democratically elected, very little can be done at the moment to push back.

Ilona Szabo

President of the Igarape Institute

The Pan American Health Organization announced on Wednesday that nearly 40% of all global Covid-related deaths reported in the past week have occurred in the Americas. Almost 80% of the intensive care units in the region are currently staffed with patients. PAHO director Carissa Etienne warned it was clear that the broadcast “far from being controlled“Although the US and Brazil are reporting declines in some cases, Reuters reported.

Brazil recorded more than 76,000 cases of the coronavirus on Wednesday, after peaking at over 100,000 daily infections in April. In terms of infection numbers, it remains the third worst Covid-affected country in the world after the United States and the United States India respectively.

“I think while the situation in India has gotten significantly worse lately, the numbers in Brazil have risen to a very, very high level. The country has actually been in a collapse for months,” said Oliver Stuenkel, Associate Professor of International relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, said CNBC by phone.

A man will be vaccinated against Covid-19 by a health worker in a remote area of ​​Moju, Para state, Brazil on April 16, 2021.

JOAO PAULO GUIMARAES | AFP | Getty Images

“What is really so fascinating is that (former US President Donald) Trump and to some extent (Indian Prime Minister Narendra) Modi are paying a political price. Bolsonaro has been able to and has not retained fairly high political support by a combination of factors done. ” however, had to pay for it because its strategy of avoiding responsibility has so far been remarkably successful, “he added.

Analysts said the government’s investigation into treatment for the pandemic will typically take around three months, but the process can take much longer.

Stuenkel said he expected the investigation to take about six months since “the real goal is to hammer home the news on the evening news that Bolsonaro was to blame”.

“Essentially, I think the investigation will be vital because if the investigation cannot change public opinion at this point, after 400,000 people have died and basically the health system has finally collapsed, basically nothing can .. . For me the crucial element is next year’s election, “he added.

What happens next?

Earlier this week, former Brazilian Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta, who was fired over a year ago after resisting Bolsonaro’s push to use the malaria drug chloroquine as a covid treatment, testified ahead of a parliamentary inquiry.

Mandetta said Bolsonaro was to be something entirely conscious that the treatment had no scientific basis. Former US President Donald Trump had also pushed for the use of the related drug hydroxychloroquine amid the pandemic, despite a lack of scientific evidence.

“Unfortunately, this is a very dangerous government, but since it was democratically elected, very little can be done right now to push back,” said Ilona Szabo, president of the Igarape Institute, a think tank based in Rio de Janeiro.

Szabo said that while she did not believe the investigation would have “immediate” political implications, “it is important that what happens today has ramifications for the future.”

“It is proven that they are responsible and that most of the deaths were preventable,” said Szabo.

Brazil Covid variant detected in New York resident for the primary time, Cuomo says

On January 14, 2021, nurses chatting outside 28 de Agosto Hospital in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil amid the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic.

MICHAEL DANTAS | AFP | Getty Images

Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Saturday that a more contagious variant of Covid-19, originally identified in Brazilian travelers, has now reached New York.

The strain was discovered by scientists at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City and verified by the Department of Health’s Wadsworth Center Laboratories. The center collects approximately 90 random samples for genome sequencing every day and has sequenced more than 8,200 samples nationwide.

The patient with the Brazil variant is a Brooklyn resident in their nineties with no travel history, according to a press release.

“The discovery of the Brazilian variant here in New York further underscores the importance of taking all appropriate measures to continue protecting your health,” said Cuomo. The governor urged New Yorkers to continue wearing masks, avoid the crowds and get vaccinated if necessary.

The Brazilian strain, designated P.1, was first identified in four travelers from Brazil who were tested during a screening in Tokyo, Japan, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The P.1 variant was discovered in the USA End of January. The CDC has since reported 48 cases nationwide. The strain has a number of additional mutations that could affect its ability to be recognized by antibodies.

There is evidence that the variant is more contagious and may make the vaccine less effective. Oxford University researchers recently released data that was not peer-reviewed, suggesting they may be less resistant to vaccines. However, additional research is needed.

Cuomo’s announcement comes as daily events Increase in New York and 20 other states. In New York, mortality and hospitalization rates are falling as vaccine distribution accelerates.

Brazil Carnival goes on-line with road events banned | Leisure




A woman disguised as a superhero and wearing a mask to contain the spread of the new coronavirus will perform in the street band “Desliga da Justica” in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Sunday, February 14, 2021. Their performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend the carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended the carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




A member of the street band “Desliga da Justica” will put on their costume on Sunday, February 14th, 2021 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The group’s performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend the Carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended Carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

Musicians will perform in the street band “Desliga da Justica” in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sunday, February 14th, 2021. Her appearance was broadcast live on social media for those unable to attend the carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended the carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

Musicians from the street band “Desliga da Justica” will perform in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sunday, February 14th, 2021. Their performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend the carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended the carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

A member of the street band “Desliga da Justica” will put on their costume on Sunday, February 14th, 2021 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The group’s performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend the Carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended Carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

Members of the street band “Desliga da Justica” will watch their production in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sunday, February 14th, 2021. Their performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend Carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended Carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

Members of the street band “Desliga da Justica” put on their costumes on Sunday, February 14th, 2021 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Their performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend Carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended Carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

A member of the street band “Desliga da Justica” will put on his costume on Sunday, February 14th, 2021 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The group’s performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend the Carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended Carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

A woman performs in the street band “Desliga da Justica” in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Sunday February 14th 2021. Her appearance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend the Carnival due to COVID restrictions.The city government officially suspended Carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

A member of the street band “Desliga da Justica” puts on his Spiderman costume on Sunday, February 14th, 2021 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The group’s performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend the Carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended Carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

A health care worker takes a nose sample from a member of the Desliga da Justica street band to test for COVID-19 before attending a taped and live broadcast of the group on social media in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sunday, Attending February 14, 2021. Their performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend Carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended Carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

Musicians will perform in the street band “Desliga da Justica” in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sunday, February 14th, 2021. Her appearance was broadcast live on social media for those unable to attend the carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended the carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.




The Brazilian Carnival goes online with banned street parties

Musicians from the street band “Desliga da Justica” will perform in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sunday, February 14th, 2021. Their performance was streamed live on social media for those unable to attend the carnival due to COVID restrictions after the city government officially suspended the carnival and banned street parades or clandestine parties.

By MARCELO SILVA DE SOUSA and DIARLEI RODRIGUES Associated Press

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) – Supergirl came out of the changing room as usual.

She took her place next to Freddy Krueger, Poison Ivy and Captain America and they started singing.

This idiosyncratic line-up is a typical type of line-up for the Carnival Street band Desliga de Justica, but this year they were in a studio in front of cameras and fans were scattered across the internet instead of dancing in the street during one of the world’s most famous celebrations .

“Everyone at home, move the furniture out of the way to dance and have cold beers,” shouted the woman, dressed as poison ivy, who started the show with a traditional carnival song.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced Rio to close its famous festival and threaten legal action against those who oppose the party ban. Groups like Desliga – the name is a Portuguese-language piece in the Justice League – are turning to online events for their supporters, streaming music and dances via YouTube and other social media platforms.

This year all members of the band were doing a PCR test for coronavirus on Sunday when they arrived at the studio in south Rio.

Desliga has been hosting the parties since 2009 and the gatherings have grown since then.

“When everyone is vaccinated, we will have the biggest carnival Brazil has ever seen. Wait until 2022, “said Supergirl, aka Carla de Freitas, 38.” We want everyone to be healthy and protected so that we can have fun in peace. “

Biden will not elevate Europe, Brazil journey restrictions regardless of Trump order, spokeswoman says

A traveler leaves a test center at Heathrow Airport in London on January 17, 2021.

Hollie Adams | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The incoming Biden administration said Monday it would lift entry bans on most visitors from Europe, the UK and Brazil no less than an hour after the president saw it Donald Trump ordered an end to travel restrictions for Covid-19.

“With the pandemic worsening and its infectious variants around the world, it is not time to lift restrictions on international travel,” the president-elect tweeted Joe BidenThe spokeswoman for Jen Psaki.

Trump put in the rules first March to contain the spread of the virus Covid-19 was already in circulation in the US before.

On Monday evening, he issued a proclamation lifting restrictions just two days before Biden’s inauguration. The rules prohibit most non-US citizens from entering the US if they have been to Brazil, the 26 Schengen countries in Europe, Ireland or the UK in the past two weeks.

Trump’s proclamation on Monday came less than a week after the US announced that travelers, including US citizens, would have to fly to the US from abroad Test negative for Covid-19 before the flight. This requirement goes into effect on January 26th – the same day the travel restrictions would be lifted. Trump said it would keep travel restrictions from Iran and China. Much of Europe is still banning most US citizens.

Airlines have repeatedly urged the U.S. government to replace the bans that contributed to a collapse in demand Billions in losseswith preflight covid tests. International travel volume fell more sharply than domestic travel volume during the pandemic.