The Reality About Cash Administration

January 18, 2021 6 min read

The opinions expressed by the entrepreneur’s contributors are their own.

can be a terrifying topic. Even the word itself seems daunting, with all of its underlying connotations. For this reason, some are turning away from dirtying their hands and gaining vital empirical knowledge in the world of money management. Instead, they turn their faces away from it and twist theirs Money management to someone who knows better.

The unfortunate one Is that kind of people will never generate the wealth they want or need. Money knowledge (what to do with it, how to use it, where to invest it, how to make it work for you, etc.) is one of the most important tools in the tool belt of the rich, and they use it as a weapon.

I sat down with supposedly Money management mentor Chris Naugle (who, fully disclosed, is also a personal friend) to discuss this important topic, and he started with this gem: “Money is not complicated. I have spoken to so many people who have held onto this common misconception that it evolved from a young age. This makes them believe that you’d better pass it on to someone who can do more with it or understand it better than you. “

Connected: Learn about the personal financial habits of wealthy entrepreneurs

And this misunderstanding is not reserved for a few. Naugle admits he felt the same way before stepping headlong into life as a financial advisor. However, after years of training, practicing, and even some failures, he has learned some valuable lessons, such as these:

“The truth is that money is just a tool. A tool that is used right and wrong. Unfortunately, most of what we are taught is wrong, and therefore a lot of our money problems are due to it. Trust me, I know it’s hard to hear or believe that everything you’ve ever been taught about money is absolutely wrong. “

Here’s Naughle’s insider breakdown on optimal money management:

The low point in privatized banking

If you aren’t in control of your money, someone else is and you can bet that they are using your money to get richer. So the idea is to take your money into your own hands.

You may have heard this concept before. There are many names: The Money Multiplier, Infinite Banking, Privatized Banking, etc. But the name is not important; It’s the meaning. With this concept, you are in control of your money and are your own bank. You can get a specially designed, lifetime policy with a mutually owned insurance company that pays dividends and puts you in a position of power.

Bottom line: it’s your money, and you have to be the one to earn the interest on it. Your bank is doing you a disservice with this tight interest rate.

Why shouldn’t you ask for money to fund your business?

I still get puzzled looks at the mere mention of this nugget of truth. You may be wondering, “How on earth is that even possible? Don’t they always tell you to ask until you find a “yes”? “Most people say so, but this information is also incorrect.

Try to solve a person’s problem instead of coming from a position where you need permission. That way, you can approach them from a position of authority and power.

As an example, let’s start a conversation with your neighbor Jim. The two of you have exchanged many stories over the years, so this starts out like any other conversation. Except this time, listen to him differently so you can really adjust to what problems Jim may be having and help solve them.

Jim tells you everything is going well, he’s in , his children have children and he now enjoys being a grandfather. He recently started looking for RVs big enough for the whole family to enjoy on camping trips. But before he gets a mobile home, he wants to finish paying off his truck.

**Ding Ding ding**

That is a problem that you can solve. You and Jim have been neighbors for 12 years, and it’s pretty safe to say he has some equity in his house. What if he could lend you $ 100,000 of that equity at 12% interest (enough to pay the interest he owes and enough money to pay off his truck)? Then you could close your deal and he could make money. It’s a win-win situation. He already knows and trusts you, which increases the likelihood that he will give you credit and you could both make money from the business.

That’s it! We’re just trying to solve someone’s problem. Give them an offer they can’t refuse and you will both be ahead of the curve. (I’m going to add here that Jim will only trust you if you’ve been a good, upright neighbor. Yes, relationships and how you treat people make you really rich.)

Demystify winning strategies with options trading

If I told you that in less than 10 minutes a day you could get higher returns than your High Yield Savings account, would you think I was crazy? Well no matter what you think it’s true. You can get higher returns by investing 10 minutes of your time a day in options trading. From there, the process can be iterated and simplified, so you may only need to spend 10 minutes a month to get the same dazzling results.

So what does it take? The trick is to find the right strategy that fits your goals and stick to a method that works. We’re not trying to reinvent the wheel here. There’s no need to complicate it.

Connected: The 8 most common areas of overspending in companies

The bottom line is that without the right knowledge and consistent application of that knowledge, you will be stuck in a place you don’t want to be. How many years of your life are you willing to give up control simply because you received the wrong information about how money really works?

I saw how Naugle changed the lives of thousands of people through this simple and correct advice on money management. The truth is, money doesn’t have to be complicated. It doesn’t have to intimidate or scare you. Most importantly, your money can work for you.

Let your money make you more money. That is intelligent wealth management.

Payments followers increase cash for Lamar Jackson’s favourite charity

BUFFALO (WBEN) – Bills Mafia is back at it, once again in the national spotlight for its generosity as thousands of donors have contributed nearly $300,000 to Lamar Jackson’s favorite charity, Louisville-based Blessings in a Backpack, after the star quarterback left Saturday’s game in the third quarter with a concussion.

Daniel Konopski, a 25-year-old Western New York native and diehard Bills fan is credited with starting the initiative, as he was so excited the Bills knocked off the Ravens 17-3 and will now be heading to the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. He took to social media following the game, asking if anyone knew of Jackson’s favorite charity.

“Somebody had posted and confirmed what I was looking up, and it was an organization called Blessings in a Backpack – (Jackson) had a history of a large sum of money that he donated to them, Louisville being where he went to college,” began Konopski. “I looked up the website, and it looks like they do amazing work, and I said there it is – I’m going to throw $25 their way.”

Konopski then posted about what he’d done on social media, hopeful that other Bills fans would follow suit, but he never expected just how far that it would go.

Love to see this ❤️

Bills fans showed support for Lamar Jackson by donating to his favorite charity, “Blessings in a Backpack,” and have now raised over $327,000.

The foundation helps feed kids while schools are closed due to COVID-19. pic.twitter.com/hwfar6i12z

— ESPN (@espn) January 18, 2021

“I went to bed, woke up the next morning, and thousands and thousands of up votes, shares, donations – I never expected it,” Konopski continued. “I was so surprised, and it’s just kept going – it hasn’t stopped, it hasn’t slowed down yet, and it’s been amazing to watch.”

According to their website, the mission of Blessings in a Backpack is to “mobilize communities, individuals, and resources to provide food on the weekends for elementary school children across America who might otherwise go hungry,” and during the pandemic, the organization’s work has become increasingly important.

“If you have not checked out Blessings in a Backpack yet, go do it. See the work that they do,” said Konopski. “It’s helping children in need, I mean, how much more of a worthy cause can you get than that?”

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Christian Barmore Indicators With Younger Cash – SPORTS AGENT BLOG

Young Money has signed Christian Barmore’s red shirt from the University of Alabama, where he is represented by Nicole Lynn. Barmore will join teammate Deonte Brown, who has also signed with Young Money and Nicole Lynn.

The 6’5 ”, 315-pound defense attorney from Philadelphia, PA attended Neumann Goretti High School. During his high school career, he was one of the top national defense lawyers. ESPN.com had ranked Barmore as the # 10 player in the eastern region of the country and the number 2 player in the state. After his redshirting as a true newcomer to Alabama, he was appointed to the freshman All-SEC team by the league coaches. He added depth along the Alabama frontline and worked in 12 games from one start. He had a total of 26 tackles, including six losses, two sacks, five quarterback pressures and two pass separations.

Barmore has been a disruptive force along the Crimson Tide defensive front last season. He crowned his Crimson Tide career with an award-winning campaign including being named the CBS Sports First All-American Team, Pro Football Focus All-America Winning Team, and USA Today All-American Team selected. American by the Associated Press and received the All-SEC first-team award from both AP and league coaches. Barmore recorded 32 tackles, including a team with seven sacks. Barmore was the 2021 CFP National Championship Defensive MVP after scoring a total of five tackles, two tackles against the loss, and a sack against the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Cash raised, spent not figuring out consider Fayetteville elections

FAYETTEVILLE – Raising or spending more money on a campaign didn’t necessarily mean winning the city’s races for the local office.

Municipal candidates were required to submit final campaign contributions and spending reports for the November 3rd general election by December 30th. This is in addition to the pre-election reports and reports related to the December 1 runoff election, if applicable.

Candidates for the city’s mayor and council races in the general election raised around $ 145,000 in total, with more than $ 135,000 spent on campaigning.

Mayor Lioneld Jordan won re-election for a fourth term, surpassing his closest opponent, Tom Terminella. Jordan raised more than $ 38,000 on $ 21,750 from Terminella. Jordan also spent more than $ 33,000 on his campaign while Terminella only spent more than $ 21,700. Jordan received 24,641 votes, or 68%, and Terminella 9,050 votes, or 25%.

Mayoral candidates Ron Baucom and William Harris, whose total vote was 2,716, or 7%, raised no money and only spent more than $ 200 apiece. Baucom spent $ 241 on signs and business cards, while Harris spent $ 227 on office supplies, brochures, and business cards.

Terminella submitted its final report on the general election on late January 8, according to the Washington County Clerk’s Office postage stamp.

Twelve contestants in the city’s four city races raised around $ 85,000 in total and reportedly spent around $ 80,000.

Two candidates for Ward 1 – Tanner Pettigrew and Oroo Oyioka – have submitted their final reports for the general election on Friday and Thursday, respectively. Three councilors – Pedro Fimbres Jr. in Station 1, Matthew Petty in Station 2, and Kyle Smith in Station 4 – filed their final reports a day later on December 31st.

The Arkansas Ethics Commission will generally only investigate a potential violation, e.g. B. if a complaint is not submitted correctly or in time when a complaint is submitted. The Commission can impose fines or send a letter of referral if it determines that there has been a breach.

D’Andre Jones won the Ward 1 seat against Pettigrew in a runoff election. Jones raised just over $ 10,300 and spent more than $ 14,000 on the general election. His pre-election report for the runoff showed he had raised nearly $ 2,500 and only spent more than $ 1,800.

With that, Jones has raised more than $ 12,000 in total and spent more than $ 16,000. He also started his campaign with $ 1,000 and borrowed $ 1,600.

A volunteer campaign worker for Jones said he raised a little more money during the runoff and made up the difference with a loan to himself. A final outflow report due Feb. 1 will reflect the amounts, she said.

The money reflected in Pettigrew’s general election reports and pre-election runoff report showed that he led Jones in donations with about $ 18,000 and only more than $ 16,000 in expenses.

Jones led Pettigrew in the November 3rd election by 3,108 votes, or 38%, to Pettigrew’s 2,413 votes, or 30%. Jones won the runoff election on December 1 by 1,040 votes, or 72%, compared to Pettigrew’s 408 votes, or 28% according to the unofficial number of votes.

Fimbres raised $ 4,400 and spent $ 4,060. Oyioka reported $ 439 in funds raised with $ 1,252 for its campaign.

Station 2 candidates, Petty and William Chesser, raised comparable sums of money of approximately $ 8,900 each. Petty, the incumbent, only spent more than $ 5,000 on his campaign, compared to $ 8,900 on Chesser’s spending.

Petty won the race with 64% of the vote, or 4,135 total votes. Chesser got 2,300, or 36%.

Peter Tonnessen did not raise money in his campaign to depose incumbent Ward 3 Councilor Sarah Bunch, who raised $ 6,350. Tonnessen spent $ 1,470 on Bunchs $ 3,913.

Bunch won re-election by 54 points with 7,548 votes, or 77%, over Tonnessen’s 2,258 votes, or 23%.

Kyle Smith, who was named to his seat in Ward 4 by the city council in 2017, has surpassed and surpassed eventual winner of the race, Holly Hertzberg. Smith raised $ 19,760 to $ 14,870 from Hertzberg. He also spent $ 20,515, compared to $ 15,027 Hertzberg spent on their campaign.

Smith borrowed $ 2,000 for his campaign. Hertzberg had a $ 157 loan to make up the difference between the amounts earned and spent.

Hertzberg won the election on November 3rd with 4,894 votes, or 51% and a majority. Smith received 3,043 votes, or 31%. Paul Waddell finished third with 942 votes, or 10%, and perennial candidate Adam Fire Cat got 774, or 8%.

Waddell raised $ 1,925 and spent $ 1,942. Fire Cat raised no money but did spend $ 13 on advertising.

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Election deadlines

If a candidate was rejected and raised or spent more than $ 500, the November 3rd general election required a campaign contribution and expense report. The reports covered all activities through October 24th.

Each candidate was required to submit a final report on the general election, regardless of whether money was raised or spent. The final report was due on December 30th. If the candidate filed the pre-election report and was not in the runoff election, the period covered was October 25th to the date submitted. If the candidate filed a pre-election report and went to a runoff election, the activity spanned October 25 through November 3.

A pre-election report for the December 1 runoff was due on November 24 and covered activities from November 4 to November 21.

The final report for the runoff election is due on February 1st. It is valid for November 22nd until the submitted date.

Source: Washington County Electoral Commission

Stacy Ryburn can be reached by email at [email protected] or on Twitter @stacyryburn.

Cash raised, spent not figuring out consider Fayetteville elections

FAYETTEVILLE – Raising or spending more money on a campaign didn’t necessarily mean winning the city’s races for the local office.

Municipal candidates were required to submit final campaign contributions and spending reports for the November 3rd general election by December 30th. This is in addition to the pre-election reports and reports related to the December 1 runoff election, if applicable.

Candidates for the city’s mayor and council races in the general election raised around $ 145,000 in total, with more than $ 135,000 spent on campaigning.

Mayor Lioneld Jordan won re-election for a fourth term, surpassing his closest opponent, Tom Terminella. Jordan raised more than $ 38,000 on $ 21,750 from Terminella. Jordan also spent more than $ 33,000 on his campaign while Terminella only spent more than $ 21,700. Jordan received 24,641 votes, or 68%, and Terminella 9,050 votes, or 25%.

Mayoral candidates Ron Baucom and William Harris, whose total vote was 2,716, or 7%, raised no money and only spent more than $ 200 apiece. Baucom spent $ 241 on signs and business cards, while Harris spent $ 227 on office supplies, brochures, and business cards.

Terminella submitted its final report on the general election on late January 8, according to the Washington County Clerk’s Office postage stamp.

Twelve contestants in the city’s four city races raised around $ 85,000 in total and reportedly spent around $ 80,000.

Two candidates for Ward 1 – Tanner Pettigrew and Oroo Oyioka – have submitted their final reports for the general election on Friday and Thursday, respectively. Three councilors – Pedro Fimbres Jr. in Station 1, Matthew Petty in Station 2, and Kyle Smith in Station 4 – filed their final reports a day later on December 31st.

The Arkansas Ethics Commission will generally only investigate a potential violation, e.g. B. if a complaint is not submitted correctly or in time when a complaint is submitted. The Commission can impose fines or send a letter of referral if it determines that there has been a breach.

D’Andre Jones won the Ward 1 seat against Pettigrew in a runoff election. Jones raised just over $ 10,300 and spent more than $ 14,000 on the general election. His pre-election report for the runoff showed he had raised nearly $ 2,500 and only spent more than $ 1,800.

With that, Jones has raised more than $ 12,000 in total and spent more than $ 16,000. He also started his campaign with $ 1,000 and borrowed $ 1,600.

A volunteer campaign worker for Jones said he raised a little more money during the runoff and made up the difference with a loan to himself. A final outflow report due Feb. 1 will reflect the amounts, she said.

The money reflected in Pettigrew’s general election reports and pre-election runoff report showed that he led Jones in donations with about $ 18,000 and only more than $ 16,000 in expenses.

Jones led Pettigrew in the November 3rd election by 3,108 votes, or 38%, to Pettigrew’s 2,413 votes, or 30%. Jones won the runoff election on December 1 by 1,040 votes, or 72%, compared to Pettigrew’s 408 votes, or 28% according to the unofficial number of votes.

Fimbres raised $ 4,400 and spent $ 4,060. Oyioka reported $ 439 in funds raised with $ 1,252 for its campaign.

Station 2 candidates, Petty and William Chesser, raised comparable sums of money of approximately $ 8,900 each. Petty, the incumbent, only spent more than $ 5,000 on his campaign, compared to $ 8,900 on Chesser’s spending.

Petty won the race with 64% of the vote, or 4,135 total votes. Chesser got 2,300, or 36%.

Peter Tonnessen did not raise money in his campaign to depose incumbent Ward 3 Councilor Sarah Bunch, who raised $ 6,350. Tonnessen spent $ 1,470 on Bunchs $ 3,913.

Bunch won re-election by 54 points with 7,548 votes, or 77%, over Tonnessen’s 2,258 votes, or 23%.

Kyle Smith, who was named to his seat in Ward 4 by the city council in 2017, has surpassed and surpassed eventual winner of the race, Holly Hertzberg. Smith raised $ 19,760 to $ 14,870 from Hertzberg. He also spent $ 20,515, compared to $ 15,027 Hertzberg spent on their campaign.

Smith borrowed $ 2,000 for his campaign. Hertzberg had a $ 157 loan to make up the difference between the amounts earned and spent.

Hertzberg won the election on November 3rd with 4,894 votes, or 51% and a majority. Smith received 3,043 votes, or 31%. Paul Waddell finished third with 942 votes, or 10%, and perennial candidate Adam Fire Cat got 774, or 8%.

Waddell raised $ 1,925 and spent $ 1,942. Fire Cat raised no money but did spend $ 13 on advertising.

More news

Election deadlines

If a candidate was rejected and raised or spent more than $ 500, the November 3rd general election required a campaign contribution and expense report. The reports covered all activities through October 24th.

Each candidate was required to submit a final report on the general election, regardless of whether money was raised or spent. The final report was due on December 30th. If the candidate filed the pre-election report and was not in the runoff election, the period covered was October 25th to the date submitted. If the candidate filed a pre-election report and went to a runoff election, the activity spanned October 25 through November 3.

A pre-election report for the December 1 runoff was due on November 24 and covered activities from November 4 to November 21.

The final report for the runoff election is due on February 1st. It is valid for November 22nd until the submitted date.

Source: Washington County Electoral Commission

Stacy Ryburn can be reached by email at sryburn@nwadg.com or on Twitter @stacyryburn.

Sony Open in Hawaii prize cash

Well worth playing well on the PGA Tour folks. Just ask this week’s winner, Kevin Na.

The 37-year-old has now won four consecutive seasons and won his fifth tour victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii on Sunday. Na made birdie on the final hole at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu to win the grand prize of $ 1,188,000 at 21 under. Chris Kirk and Joaquin Niemann finished T-2 at 20, taking home $ 587,400 each. Webb Simpson, Marc Leishman and Brendan Steele finished under T-4 at 19 for $ 277,750.

Check out how much money each PGA Tour player made at the Sony Open in Hawaii this week.

Sony Open: Leaderboard | photos | Winner bag

Prize money

position player Result Merits
1 Kevin Well -21 $ 1,188,000
T2 Chris Kirk -20 $ 587,400
T2 Joaquin Niemann -20 $ 587,400
T4 Webb Simpson -19 $ 277,750
T4 Marc Leishman -19 $ 277,750
T4 Brendan Steele -19 $ 277,750
T7 Collin Morikawa -18 $ 200,475
T7 Patton Kizzire -18 $ 200,475
T7 Billy Horschel -18 $ 200,475
T7 Daniel Berger -18 $ 200,475
T11 Matt Jones -17 $ 153,450
T11 Nick Taylor -17 $ 153,450
T11 Russell Henley -17 $ 153,450
T14 Carlos Ortiz -16 $ 113,850
T14 Nick Hardy -16 $ 113,850
T14 Keith Mitchell -16 $ 113,850
T14 Peter Malnati -16 $ 113,850
T14 Charley Hoffman -16 $ 113,850
T19 Kyoung-Hoon Lee -15 $ 78,210
T19 Charles Howell III -15 $ 78,210
T19 Kramer Hickok -15 $ 78,210
T19 Mackenzie Hughes -15 $ 78,210
T19 Hideki Matsuyama -15 $ 78,210
T19 Stewart Cink -15 $ 78,210
T25 Sepp Straka -14 $ 50,710
T25 Hudson Swafford -14 $ 50,710
T25 Michael Thompson -14 $ 50,710
T25 Vaughn Taylor -14 $ 50,710
T25 Si Woo Kim -14 $ 50,710
T25 Robby Shelton -14 $ 50,710
31 Cameron Davis -13 $ 43,230
T32 Kevin Kisner -12 $ 34,577
T32 Brice Garnett -12 $ 34,577
T32 Harris English -12 $ 34,577
T32 Ryan Armor -12 $ 34,577
T32 Mark Hubbard -12 $ 34,577
T32 Jim Herman -12 $ 34,577
T32 Wesley Bryan -12 $ 34,577
T32 Pat Perez -12 $ 34,577
T32 Harry Higgs -12 $ 34,577
T41 Ryan Palmer -11 $ 24,090
T41 Lanto Griffin -11 $ 24,090
T41 Brendon Todd -11 $ 24,090
T41 James Hahn -11 $ 24,090
T41 Adam Scott -11 $ 24,090
T41 Aaron Baddeley -11 $ 24,090
T47 Sergio Garcia -10 16,903 USD
T47 Austin Cook -10 16,903 USD
T47 Mike Weir -10 16,903 USD
T47 Brian Stuard -10 16,903 USD
T47 Jim Furyk -10 16,903 USD
T47 Emiliano Grillo -10 16,903 USD
T47 Scott Brown -10 16,903 USD
T47 Nelson Lauta Ledesma -10 16,903 USD
T47 Martin trainer -10 16,903 USD
T56 Brian Harman -9 $ 15,048
T56 Jason Kokrak -9 $ 15,048
T56 Troy Merritt -9 $ 15,048
T56 Satoshi Kodaira -9 $ 15,048
T56 Sungjae Im -9 $ 15,048
T56 Chris Baker -9 $ 15,048
T62 Cameron Smith -8th $ 14,454
T62 Anirban Lahiri -8th $ 14,454
T62 Zach Johnson -8th $ 14,454
T65 Sebastian Munoz -7 $ 14,124
T65 Michael Kim -7 $ 14,124
T67 At Reavie -6 $ 13,728
T67 Ryosuke Kinoshita -6 $ 13,728
T67 Jamie Lovemark -6 $ 13,728
T67 Robert Streb -6 $ 13,728
71 KJ Choi -5 $ 13,398
72 Brian Gay -3 $ 13,266
73 Jerry Kelly E. $ 13,134


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Canine and goat serving as mayor increase cash for a playground

FAIR HAVEN, Vt. (AP) – A goat and dog, each elected mayor, helped raise money to renovate a playground in Vermont.

The strange idea of ​​holding mayoral elections to raise money for the renovation of the playground and to get the local children involved came from a local city administrator.

In 2018, the residents of Fair Haven elected Lincoln to goat as honorary mayor. Lincoln helped raise about $ 10,000 while current Mayor Murfee, a Cavalier King Charles Spaniel, raised $ 20,000, Town Manager Joe Gunter told the Rutland Herald. The city brought in another $ 20,000.

Murfee’s owner, Linda Barker, said when she was persuaded to include Murfee in politics, she thought it was easy to raise money through t-shirts. Then the pandemic struck.

So she switched to masks. She made nearly 1,000 of them and will be doing another round of them for Valentine’s Day. She raised more than $ 5,000 from the masks and a similar amount from basket raffles.

The city recently received a $ 50,000 grant from the Federal Fund for Land and Water Conservation, she said.

Ironically, the honorary mayor is not welcome on the playground. Barker said there is a “no dogs allowed” sign.

“Murfee will take on the city,” Barker said with a chuckle on Sunday. “He’ll deny that.”

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Warren County offers extra money for Mullen demolition; Challenge may very well be accomplished this week | Native



Bronze Contracting continues work on demolishing the Mullen Building on Bay Road in Queensbury last week. Warren County provided some additional funding to complete the project.


Photo provided

QUEENSBURY – Warren County’s regulators have provided additional money to demolish the Mullen building on Bay Road but have not yet made a decision on what to do with the land.

The Board of Supervisors on Friday agreed to provide an additional $ 2,000 for project costs.

Bronze Contracting from Remsen in the district of Oneida began with the demolition work at the beginning of this month.

Claudia Braymer, director of Glens Falls’ 3rd division, said more of the waste that was removed did not contain asbestos. The contractor will have to amend its application to the state Department of Labor to get permission not to treat all waste as asbestos, she said.

The original cost of the contract was around $ 72,000. The county has the money in its reserve fund to cover the additional costs.

“I want this to proceed immediately,” said Braymer.

The regulators had no problem with the additional funding. Peter McDevitt, director of Glens Falls’ 2nd division, said he was excited that the building is falling and it will be a very positive thing economically for the county.

“This is an eyesore at the junction of Glens Falls and Queensbury. It’s the first thing you see when you get on and off, ”he said.

Are you positive you wish to spend large cash on the bullpen?

The bullpen was a major strength of the 2020 Twins. The reliever group performed at one of the highest levels in baseball — tying with Tampa for the major league lead in fWAR (3.6), finishing fifth in FIP (3.85), strikeout rate (27.4%), and win probability added (2.26); and sixth in ERA (3.62). Fast forward to the middle of this frigid offseason, though, and the bullpen is now one of the Twins’ position groups most in need of strengthening before the 2021 season begins.

Sergio Romo’s $5M contract option for 2021 was bought out at the start of the offseason and he remains a free agent. Tyler Clippard also remains available in free agency. Trevor May became a free agent for the first time and did not hesitate to cash in on a multi-year deal with the New York Mets. Surprising waiver claim success Matt Wisler was non-tendered in early December, but has since latched on with the San Francisco Giants.

Those four were key players in last year’s bullpen. Collectively they worked just more than 36% of the innings covered by Twins’ relievers. They were effective, too, pitching to a 3.11 ERA and striking out just more than 31% of the batters they faced. If the four of them all end up somewhere else for the 2021 season they will be leaving a significant hole in the Twins’ relief corps.

Naturally, then, we are expecting the Twins brain trust to look to the free agent market to acquire good relief pitchers to replace them. The market this winter offered a number of bigger name and proven relievers that have been speculated to be fits for the Twins — like Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley and the aforementioned May. But those names have started to come off the board — Liam Hendriks to the White Sox, Archie Bradley to Philadelphia, and May to New York — and the chorus is growing louder and louder by the day for the Minnesota Front Office to “do something.”

Of course, it’s not as though they haven’t done anything to address the bullpen thus far. It’s just that the acquisitions of Derek Law, Glenn Sparkman, Luke Farrell, Juan Minaya, Ian Gibaut, Brandon Waddell, and Hansel Robles are not the kind of big, splashy moves that would count as “doing something” for most of us.

The bullpen has holes, so naturally it makes sense to want to spend money to patch it. Bringing on someone like Hand and his Minnesota roots would make for a fun story and natural connection. Aggressively targeting former Twin Hendriks (who was arguably the best available reliever this winter) also would have made sense. Both even come with the Proven Closer™ distinction that many value highly.

But I’m here to tell you — we don’t want the Twins to spend big money on the bullpen and the idea of a Proven Closer™ is mostly nonsense.

The data shows the track record of big free agent reliever contracts is very spotty and spending significant dollars over multiple years is no guarantee of greater relief production. In fact, money spent isn’t even a useful indicator of relief production.

Recent Free Agent Reliever Spending & Results

I went to the data to see how recent big money and multi-year free agent reliever signings have worked out on the field. In particular, I wanted to see if there has been a positive relationship between spending and production from relievers.

To investigate this question, I pulled together a dataset that included every free agent reliever that signed a major league contract in the last three offseasons (2018-2020). The details of the contracts they signed were sourced from Spotrac’s database and performance data for each player was obtained from Fangraphs.

In total there were 102 free agent contracts included. 63 of them were one year deals, 27 were for two years, 11 were for three years, and just one was for four years. 88 of the deals were for 1-million dollars or more in annual average value (AAV), with the remainder being for amounts closer to the major league minimum or just slightly above it. The largest dollar deal in the set was Wade Davis’ signing with Colorado for 3 years and just more than $17-million AAV before the 2018 season. Left-hander Drew Pomeranz had the longest contract in terms of years, with that four year deal with the Padres before last season.

Of the 102 deals, 90 of them have been completed. Because 12 still have seasons left to play, I decided to use single season data points, instead of cumulative values over the life of the contracts. That gave me a data set with 138 completed reliever seasons to analyze.

One note to point out is the dataset also includes the shortened 2020 season. While that could introduce some noise to the data, most of the key takeaways I’m going to try to make will focus on benchmark thresholds, like above or below replacement or average, instead of cumulative totals that might be skewed by the imbalance in games played. Wins above replacement from Fangraphs (fWAR) and win probability added (WPA), which shows how much a pitcher’s results added or detracted to a team’s chance of winning, are the metrics I’ll use.

Free Agent Reliever Results

What I, and others like Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, who have done this sort of analysis before found is that spending on relievers is essentially a crapshoot.

Of the 138 completed reliever seasons in the dataset, 51 of them (37%) were below replacement level by fWAR. 58 of the 138 (42%) produced negative win probability added (WPA). As you can see in the histograms below, the results are somewhat normally distributed around 0 in both charts.

The takeaway from these simple plots is that, at least for the past three seasons, relievers signed to free agent contracts have hurt the signing team on the field nearly as often as they have helped it.

That data includes all the signed relievers, regardless of the amount spent on them. Maybe the results are skewed above because of the low-dollar signings? Perhaps factoring in the annual cost of the signing shows a different pattern?

Below, I plotted the AAV of the contracts against the single season fWAR and WPA produced. As you can see, the data is scattershot, with no clear pattern:

In theory, you would expect the data in these charts to show an “up and to the right” trend, which would indicate that higher paid relievers provide better production. After all, the higher paid free agent relievers are supposed to be the best relievers. But that trend definitely isn’t present in this data. Overall, the R-squared values of the two charts, which indicate how well one data set predicts the other (e.g., AAV predicting WPA), are almost non-existent (.005 and .027, respectively).

The takeaways are that there is basically no relationship between spending and performance from free agent relievers and spending definitely doesn’t portend greater production.

Large and Multi-Year Contracts

Those takeaways are surprising. More highly paid free agent relievers are supposed to be better. Just to be sure, let’s focus specifically on the bigger and multi-year contracts. Using the admittedly arbitrary threshold of $8-million AAV, I was left with 44 reliever seasons in the dataset. This includes the Twins’ signing of Addison Reed before the 2018 season. Of these 44, just 6 were single year deals. The remainder were for multiple years.

I looked at this data in the same way as above:

Nothing much changed when the higher paid group is isolated. These are the (in theory) “better” relievers, including many who were among the most sought after on the market when they were available, yet the histogram distributions are again somewhat normal and the x-y plots are still scattershot with R-squared numbers that are comparably small to before.

In this set, it’s even more of a coin flip as to whether their production after they signed their big deals was beneficial on the field. Of the 44 seasons in this group, 18 were below replacement level and 23 delivered negative win probability added. The median fWAR of the group was just 0.05 and the average was 0.1 — essentially replacement level. Even worse, the median WPA was —0.12 and the average was —0.19, meaning these relievers cost their teams chances to win more often than they helped.

Perhaps even more telling of the volatility of relievers is that only 10 of 39 relievers who signed multi-year deals in the past three offseasons were above replacement level in each season of their contract. Four of the 39 found themselves unable to finish their deals due to injury or release (including Reed in Minnesota).

Making Sense

High value, multi-year deals or not, it just isn’t the norm for relievers to consistently perform at the highest levels season after season. To illustrate, here are the lists of top 10 relievers by WPA from the 2018 and 2019 seasons, side by side:

Only four names appear on both, highlighted in red. To extend it further, only two pitchers from the 2018 list also appeared on the 2017 list (not shown) and only Vazquez made the list in 2017, 2018, and 2019. None of the pitchers in the two seasons listed above appeared on the 2020 list (setting aside small sample size variation due to the shortened season).

Part of the reason this plays out like this is because of how relievers are used today. The length of relief appearances has decreased steadily over the past several decades as the frequency of appearances has increased. Teams routinely go to relievers for one inning (or less) stints, which makes a reliever season somewhat of a small sample by definition. A few bad outings over the course of a season can affect a reliever’s topline season total stats.

A byproduct of the short outings is that relievers are incentivized to max out their effort every time they take the ball. While difficult to prove, it seems likely that operating at these extreme levels contributes to pitcher injury or ineffectiveness in time. While injuries certainly will sink a large free agent deal on a relief pitcher, slight declines in effectiveness might be an even larger risk factor for a signing club.

Slight declines in effectiveness disproportionately destroy reliever value primarily because relievers are simply not as talented or good as starting pitchers (in general). Almost no pitchers are developed exclusively as relief pitchers as they are progressing through high school or college. The best pitchers start games at the youth levels and chances are pretty good that a pitcher who is talented enough to pitch in professional baseball was one of the best arms on their team as a youth player. Almost every reliever pitching in the bigs today was a starting pitcher at lower levels.

Most relievers become relievers only after they get into professional ball because, for one reason or another, they were not good enough to be a successful starting pitcher in the Majors. Common reasons for this include lack of command, or not having a 3rd or 4th pitch, or the inability to hold their stuff and velocity for 100+ pitches in an outing.

Whatever the reason, the bullpen offers opportunities for these “lesser” pitchers to thrive, by consistently facing more advantageous platoon matchups, or simplifying an approach to focus on their best pitches, or because command just isn’t quite as important when you can just blow your best max effort fastballs by hitters for a single inning at a time.

The point is, a lot of relievers are already at the max of their abilities by the time they reach a Major League bullpen and then must try to be successful living on the razor’s edge in the highest leverage situations the game has to offer.

All of this makes it very difficult to have lasting staying power.

Diversifying with a Lottery Ticket Approach

None of this is to suggest that spending on relievers in free agency can’t work out. It can and does in individual cases. But in general, it’s a gamble where the risk to reward ratio is hard to empirically justify. Three seasons of data is hardly a complete sample, but it seems that signing a reliever to a big money or multi-year contract has about a 50/50 shot of hurting the team’s chances of winning in any given season and a 75% chance of going bad before the contract is up.

So, I ask: “are you sure you want to spend big money on the bullpen?”

To me, all of this seems pretty clear that the bullpen is a prime place to take an approach that diversifies risk. Instead of tying up a lot of resources for multiple years into one bullpen arm, it seems quite prudent to try to grab several lottery tickets on one-year deals, which is an approach that has worked for the Twins before and that it seems they are trying again.

The fact remains, as the data above bore out, you can get the same production from a much less costly class of players. Actually, you might even be able to get better production. I also filtered the data set just for the contracts and player seasons with an AAV between $1-million and $5-million. Among these, the median fWAR and WPA were both 0.1. Those are not dramatically better than the high-dollar set above, but they are better. When we consider the average fWAR and WPA produced by this class of free agent — 0.26 fWAR and 0.36 WPA — the numbers slant even more in favor of smaller-dollar free agent relievers.

To be clear, I’m not arguing that the Twins front office shouldn’t spend money in free agency. They should (and will, I think?), especially in light of the offseason moves made by the rival White Sox. What I am arguing, though, is that that money they do spend shouldn’t be spent heavily on relievers. Let the White Sox spend $54-million on Hendriks, and the Mets spend $15.5-million on Trevor May, and someone else spend big on Brad Hand. They are good relievers, no doubt. But we have no idea if they’ll be good relievers in the future.

For my taste, I’d rather patch those bullpen holes by bringing back Tyler Clippard, taking that flier on Hansel Robles, and adding another lottery ticket or two like him on one year deals for a few million dollars. Then I’d direct everything else that is available to spend this offseason to the rotation and Nelson Cruz.

John is a contributor to Twinkie Town with an emphasis on analytics. He is a lifelong Twins fan and former college pitcher. You can follow him on Twitter @JohnFoley_21.

America’s worldwide popularity is tattered, however our cash might help restore it

This policy depends less on American cultural power than on American money.

After the failure of US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, promoting democracy has a bad reputation. And when it comes to spreading democracy with a weapon, that call is justified. The best evidence suggests that instruments of coercion such as military intervention and sanctions usually fail. Just before the invasions in Iraq and Afghanistan four of 15 American nation-building Interventions in the previous century had led to lasting progress towards democracy. Foreign regime changes usually do not result economically Benefits, building a lasting democracy or promoting a more stable one Relationships advance US interests. And sanctions against authoritarian regimes, such as those imposed on Iraq in the 1990s, often only serve that purpose strengthen autocratic institutions while causing considerable suffering.

Although compulsory methods of promoting democracy rarely succeed, a wide range of research shows that unenforced tools like election surveillance and foreign aid can effectively promote democracy – and they don’t depend on high approval ratings for America overseas. For example studies conducted in Afghanistan, Armenia, Indonesia, and Tunisiasuggest, among other things, that election surveillance can reduce election fraud and increase the perceived credibility of elections. And there are significant ones proofs in favor of foreign aid, which depends on countries taking concrete steps to support democracy. Like the political scientists Tobias Heinrich and Matt W. Loftis written“Over a decade of empirical research shows that foreign aid specifically aimed at promoting democracy is remarkably effective in improving the survival and institutional strength of fragile democracies.”

To put this policy into practice, the von Biden administration and Congress should increase support for the US Agency for International Development, the National Foundation for Democracy, and the US Peace Institute. These agencies work to bolster democratic institutions overseas, and all three saw their support cut under the Trump administration.

While the Biden team has rightly insisted on advocating democracy, this is currently being proposed solutions are insufficient. Biden’s main proposal for promoting democracy abroad, for example, is a “Summit for Democracy” that he plans to hold in his first year in office – a largely symbolic project that is likely to get bogged down in debates about which countries are eligible for invitation. Bigger ideas are needed to ease autocratic pressures at home and abroad.

After all, according to Freedom House, 2019 was the 14th consecutive year of retreat for global freedom Annual report. In Central Europe and Central Asia there are are “There are fewer democracies in the region today than there have been since the 1995 annual report.” Hungary, a member of the European Union, is no longer democratic; Poland, another EU member, is tending in the same direction. In Hong Kong, on the same day as the storming of the Capitol, the Chinese government arrested 53 politicians, activists, lawyers and academics, a continuation of Beijing’s crackdown on pro-democracy groups in the city.

Some may say that the withdrawal of democratic governance around the world does not necessarily matter to US interests. You would be wrong. Democratic governments don’t just treat their own citizens better;; They also tend to be more benevolent actors on the world stage. Democratic countries are less likely fight rather each other trade with each other and rather cooperate. American interests – not to mention American values ​​- suffer in a more autocratic world.

None of this can be denied that American democracy itself is in dire need of repair. However, reforming domestic democracy and advocating for democracy abroad are not mutually exclusive. They are two sides of the same coin.

Bryan Schonfeld and Sam Winter-Levy are PhD students in Politics at Princeton University.